[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 280546
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ida, located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico just
north of the western tip of Cuba.

A well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles
east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of
thunderstorms near and to the northeast of its center. Additional
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form later today before the system moves into an
environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler
waters on Sunday.  The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward through this morning, then turn northward this
afternoon and evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic
several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized
showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be only marginally conducive for development. However, a
tropical depression could still form by early next week.  By
midweek, the system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system.
The disturbance is expected to drift eastward through tonight and
Saturday, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central
north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa
by the middle of next week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear somewhat conducive for gradual development toward the end of
next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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