[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS84 KMOB 280352
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ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281200-

Hurricane Ida Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL092021
1052 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

...IDA RE-EMERGING INTO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADED NORTHWESTWARD...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Greene and Perry

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for George, Greene, Perry,
      and Stone
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
      Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 590 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 550 miles
      south-southeast of Pensacola FL
    - 23.0N 84.0W
    - Storm Intensity 80 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 10 PM CDT, the center of Hurricane Ida has just cleared the western tip of Cuba
and is churning across open and very warm Gulf of Mexico waters as it moves to the
northwest at 15 mph. This general motion should continue until Ida reaches the
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.  On the  forecast track, the center of Ida will
move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two
and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast late Sunday.

Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ida is expected to
be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast
Sunday. Currently, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

Ida will likely bring rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher amounts
of 12 or more inches (especially over southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama) Sunday
into Monday and potentially extending into Tuesday. This is likely to result in flash,
urban, small stream, and river flooding to the central Gulf Coast.

Depending on the exact track of Ida after landfall, high end tropical storm force
conditions could persist for several hours over interior southeast Mississippi and
additional counties may be added to the Tropical Storm watch later. We continue to
very carefully monitor the situation.

Swells will begin reaching our portion of the Gulf Coast coast tomorrow evening.
Two to four feet  coastal water rises above normally dry ground along the beaches,
sounds and the shoreline of Mobile Bay. One to three feet of water rise possible
further east into the western Florida Panhandle. Surf heights are expected to increase
to be between 8-12 feet Saturday night into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, wave run up, and dangerous rip currents.

The tornado threat will also begin to increase on Sunday across southeastern Mississippi,
far southwestern Alabama, and portions of far western Florida as the outer rainbands on
the east and northeast side of Ida move into and across the area.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
interior southeast MS, coastal Alabama and and inland southwest Alabama.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across east of the Tropical storm watch area.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across interior southeast Mississippi, coastal Alabama,
portions of western Florida Panhandle and interior southwest Alabama. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.



* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across interior
southeast Mississippi, coastal Alabama and interior southwestern Alabama.
. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal alabama and adjoining Mobile Bay shoreline.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 5 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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