[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ida is centered near 20.0N 81.4W at 27/0900 UTC
or 40 nm NNW of Grand Cayman moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The maximum sea heights are
reaching 12 ft mainly within 60 nm in the NE quadrant. Scattered
to numerous moderate convection prevails from 13N-23N between 74W-
83W. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move away from
the Cayman Islands this morning, pass near or over the Isle of
Youth and western Cuba later today, and over the southeastern and
central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The system is
forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4, for
more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts.

A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 33N53W, about 650 nm to the
E of Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 27N-
35N between 50W-55W. Environmental conditions are only forecast to be
marginally conducive for development, but a tropical depression
could still form over the weekend.  The system is expected to move
slowly eastward during the next day or two, but a faster
northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday.
This system has a medium chance for tropical formation during the
next 48 hours.

A tropical wave with axis along 46W, from 18N southward, is moving
westward 10 to 15 kt. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days before it moves into an environment of
stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward for another day
or so and then turn northward over the weekend. This system has a
high chance for tropical formation during the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 18N southward,
moving westward 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail from 05N-10N
between 23W-33W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is related
to this wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 15N southward,
moving W 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails
inland over portions of Central America mainly south of 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 17N16W
to 10N23W to 14N31W to low pressure near 12N46W 1008 mb to 07N50W.
THe ITCZ continues from that point to 07N58W. Aside from the
convection discussed in the tropical waves section above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-19N between 33W-
43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 30N88W to 26N88W to 22N87W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 24N between 85W-89W.
Another area of scattered moderate convection prevails over the NW
gulf mainly N of 26N and W of 94W. Latest scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds over the western half of the basin,
while moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 90W due to the
pressure gradient enhanced by the proximity of T.S. Ida.

Tropical Storm Ida near 20.0N 81.4W 1001 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50
kt. Ida will move to 21.5N 82.9W this afternoon, 23.4N 84.9W Sat
morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.3N 86.9W Sat
afternoon, 27.1N 88.8W Sun morning, 28.7N 90.2W Sun afternoon,
and inland to 30.1N 91.1W Mon morning. Ida will weaken to a
tropical storm while moving inland over 33.0N 90.5W by early Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Ida and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
is along 10N and W of 76W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along and south of the monsoon trough.

Tropical Storm Ida near 20.0N 81.4W 1001 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Ida will move to 21.5N 82.9W this afternoon, 23.4N 84.9W Sat
morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.3N 86.9W Sat
afternoon, 27.1N 88.8W Sun morning, 28.7N 90.2W Sun afternoon,
and inland to 30.1N 91.1W Mon morning. Ida will weaken to a
tropical storm while moving inland over 33.0N 90.5W by early Tue.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere through the
forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Special Features
developing across the basin and the tropical waves present.

Upper level anticyclonic outflow, that is curving away from the
NW Caribbean Sea Tropical Storm IDA, is reaching Florida near
29N, and curving toward 29N70W in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered
showers prevail over the west Atlantic mainly west of 75W. To the
east, a surface trough is along 29N65W to 23N70W. Scattered
showers are noted along and within 100 nm W of the trough. Another
trough extends from 30N27W to 24N31W. No significant convection is
noted at this time with this trough. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin with fair weather.

High pressure centered N of 30N will dominate the SW
N Atlantic through Mon supporting gentle to moderate E to SE
winds. Fresh winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during
the evening hours through Sat night.

$$
ERA
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