[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Aug 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ida is centered near 18.0N
79.8W at 26/2100 UTC or 90 nm WSW of Negril Jamaica moving NW at
12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are
11 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
within 180 nm in the NE semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated
convection is elsewhere from 13N to 23N between 73W and 83W. The
system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on
Sunday. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. Ida is forecast to reach hurricane intensity this weekend
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is
likely over the Gulf of Mexico and the system could be near
major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf
coast. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce significant flooding
across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, the Isle of Youth and
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Please see the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4
for more details. Please refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic
about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form this weekend.  The system is expected to move
slowly eastward during the next day or two, but a faster
northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday. There is a
medium chance for tropical cyclone development over the next 48
hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic about midway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves toward
the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance
is forecast to turn northward early next week. There is a medium
chance for tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W S of 18N, moving W at 10
kt. Isolated showers are seen near where the wave intersects the
monsoon trough.

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
tropical wave along 42W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W from 07N-19N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen south of 10N near the
wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W S of 16N, moving W at 5
to 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
seen near where the wave intersects the east Pacific monsoon
trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 14N35W to 08N45W to
07N52W. The ITCZ continues from 07N52W to 09N58W. Aside from
convection noted in the sections above, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 12N between
15W and 20W, from 05N to 16N between 31W and 38W, and from
05N to 10N between 46W and 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over the northwest Gulf of Mexico is producing
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 25N to 30N
between 90W and 96.5W. Another surface trough is located over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 23N and 29N between 83W and 86W.
Moderate winds are noted over the eastern Gulf, with light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the
eastern Gulf and 1-3 ft over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ida near 18.0N 79.6W 1006 mb at
5 PM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. Ida will reach near 19.7N 81.0W Fri morning, move inland
to 21.7N 82.8W Fri afternoon, 23.7N 84.8W Sat morning, strengthen
to a hurricane near 25.6N 87.0W Sat afternoon, 27.2N 88.8W Sun
morning, and 28.9N 90.4W Sun afternoon. Ida will weaken to a
tropical storm while moving inland near 31.9N 91.4W Mon
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the special features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Ida. The eastern Caribbean east of 70W is free of
any significant precipitation areas. Moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail over the area, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Outside of Ida,
conditions are quiet west of 83W for the moment, except for the
Yucatan Channel and just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, where
moderate NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ida will reach near 18N80W this
evening, move near or over western Cuba near 22.5N 84W Fri
evening, then strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico
near 24N86W Sat morning. Tropical storm force winds and seas over
12 ft will exit the northwest Caribbean by Sat morning. Moderate
to fresh winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast
period, except for locally strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section above for details on a
trough of low pressure over the central Atlantic near 31N55W,
which has the potential for tropical cyclone development.

An upper-level trough over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico
is inducing upper-level diffluence to the east of northern
Florida. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
east of northern Florida from 28N to 31N between 74W and 80W.
Moderate to fresh east winds are over the waters west of 70W.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Farther south, scattered showers
extend off the north coast of eastern Cuba south of 24N between
73W and 80W, associated with the outermost rain bands of T.S. Ida.
Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail from 20N-26N between 50W-
70W, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. In the northeast portion of the
area, a cold front extends from 31N25W to a 1014 mb low pressure
near 28N30W. A surface trough extends from the low SW to 23N35W.
Fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are west of the low and
surface trough. Fresh to strong trades are noted in the area
from 12N to 20N between 37W and 50W, where seas are 7 to 10 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure located just N of
the forecast region will dominate the SW N Atlantic through Mon
supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during the
evening hours through Sat night. Otherwise, a low pressure is
forecast to develop E of the Bahamas by Tue.

$$
AL
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