[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized
in association with a trough of low pressure located less than
200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected
to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to move
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman
Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on
Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given the recent
developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands
and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be required later
today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
flooding will be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could
bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall
to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican
state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week.
However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to
form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress
of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov and the High Seas Forecast at
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. Please, refer to
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was added to the 0000 UTC analysis/surface map
along 19W. The Hovmoller Diagram indicated the westward propagation
of the wave and Dakar was reporting SE winds indicating the passage
of the wave. At 0600 UTC, the wave is along 20W, from 19N
southward. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis
from 11N-16N between 20W-23W. This convective activity is reaching
the Cabo Verde Islands.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, south of 19N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near
12N38W. Scattered moderate to isolate strong convection is noted
from 10N-13N between 37W-42W. Some development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level
winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by
early next week.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W, south of 19N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the
wave meets the ITCZ. The tropical wave axis extends into Guyana.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77/78W, south of 20N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. A 1006 mb low pressure is along the wave axis
near 15.1N 77.8W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
associated to this disturbance is covering the waters from 15N-19N
between 75W-79W, and from 12N-17N between 73W-75W. Please see
special features section above for more details on this disturbance.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Senegal near
15N17W and continues to low pres near 12N38W to 07N47W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N47W to 10N60W. Aside from convection noted in
the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 06N-10N between 40W-48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from SE Florida to western Cuba, and is
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong NE
winds are noted ahead of the trough axis affecting the SE Gulf
and the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate
winds prevail. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the SE Gulf, and
1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface trough will move into the eastern
Gulf this morning reaching the central Gulf by tonight. Otherwise,
high pressure pressure will dominate the basin through Fri,
producing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A tropical
depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow
in the Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move into the
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Currently, a Gale Warning has been
issued in association with this system located about less than
200 miles south of Jamaica. This system could bring dangerous
impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of
the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty
remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these
areas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Expect a large increase in winds and seas this weekend in association
with this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean associated
with a tropical wave and a low pressure along the wave axis. Moderate
to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate
winds are over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical depression or storm is expected to
form later today or tomorrow in the Caribbean Sea. For now, a Gale
Warning is in effect for the NW Caribbean. Please see the Special
Features section above for more on a low pressure along an active
tropical wave located over the central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see special features section above for more on a broad
trough of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic, which
has the potential for tropical cyclone development.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 29N75W across the NW
Bahamas into western Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is ahead of the trough axis affecting SE Florida and
the Florida Keys. Similar convection is also noted near the
northern end of the trough from 28N-30N W of 75W. Fresh to strong
NE winds are west of the surface trough. Fresh to strong winds SE
are in the east side of the trough discussed in the Special Features
section above. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas
are in the 8-9 ft range in the vicinity of the trough over the
central tropical Atlantic, and also in the vicinity of the low near
12N38W. Seas of 6-7 ft are NE of the NW Bahamas. Elsewhere seas
in the 4-6 ft range prevail.

For the forecast W of 65W, A surface trough located over the NW Bahamas
will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this morning. Fresh to
strong NE winds are expected west of the trough axis, including the
Florida Straits. Otherwise, high pressure located just N of the
forecast region will dominate the SW N Atlantic through Mon. Fresh
to locally strong winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during
the evening hours through Sat night.

$$
GR
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