[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 251758
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or
over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional
development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding
will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition,
this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind,
and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas,
and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next
week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to
form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress
of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 700 miles
southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level
winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns
eastward over the open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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