[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Aug 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy Rainfall in southern Central America: A broad area of low
pressure is expected to form over the SW Caribbean Sea later this
week, resulting in an increase in moisture and unstable
conditions across southern Central America. Heavy rainfall is
expected across SE Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia
through early in the weekend. The heaviest precipitation is
forecast to affect southern Costa Rica and western Panama late
this week. These rains could cause significant flooding and
mudslides in some areas.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, south of 19N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is along the wave axis,
where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
isolates strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 27W
and 31W. The NHC is tracking this disturbance for possible
tropical cyclone development. For more details, please see the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W, south of 18N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated to
this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, south of 20N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 11N to 18B between 64W and 71W. This disturbance is
being monitored for possible tropical cyclone development. For
more details, please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 16N17W to
08N34W to 10N49W. The ITCZ then extends from 10N49W to 11N61W.
Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 06N between 34W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to dominate the weather conditions across
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough in the northern Gulf extends
from the Florida Panhandle to 27N91W. A few showers are noted
along the trough. Light to gentle winds are noted over the NE
Gulf, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are
in the 2-3 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface trough will move into the eastern
Gulf Wed night into Thu morning, bringing fresh E winds.
Otherwise, high pressure pressure will dominate the basin through
Fri, producing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Fresh
winds will pulse west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and again
Wed night. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form Thu
over the southwestern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development if the low remains over
water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sun. The
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within
the next 5 days. Regardless of development, confidence is
increasing that winds and waves will increase Sun over the
central and SW Gulf of Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the waters south of 15N and
east of 79W. Fresh to strong winds are over the windward passage.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8
ft range over much of the waters between 64W and 80W and over the
windward passage. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the NE
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will
dominate most of east and central Caribbean through midweek with
seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Windward passage and in the lee of Cuba through
tonight. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over
the southwestern Caribbean by Thu. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development if the low remains over
water, and a tropical depression could form late this week while
the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. The disturbance should reach the Yucatan Peninsula Sat and
be in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sun. Regardless of
development, winds and waves will likely increase between 77W and
the Yucatan Peninsula Fri and Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low pressure is located near 23N49W is moving NW at 10
to 15 kt. Fresh to strong winds are noted NE of the low center.
The system is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms
near the center. Little development of this system is expected
during the next day or two due while it moves northwestward at
about 10 to 15 kt over marginally conducive ocean temperatures
and is affected by strong upper- level winds. Afterwards,
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the
central Atlantic. For more details, please see the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook.

Northwest of the low, a weak surface trough extends from a
weakening stationary front north of the area to 24N55W. Scattered
moderate showers are noted SE of the trough from 27N to 29N. A
surface trough extends from 28N68W to 21N69W. Fresh to locally
strong winds are SE of the trough. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 23N to 30N between 64W and 74W.
Fresh to strong winds are also noted west of the tropical wave
near 28W from 16N to 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range
in the areas where strong winds are noted. Elsewhere over the
open waters, seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W: a surface trough just east of the
Bahamas will move westward, bringing strong NE to E winds over
the central Bahamas tonight. By Thu morning, the surface trough
will extend from 30N78W to the western tip of Cuba, bringing
fresh to locally strong E winds to the east of northern Florida
before the trough weakens by late Thu. Otherwise, a 1022 mb high
pressure located near Bermuda will dominate the remainder of the
forecast region through at least Wed. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening
hours through Sat night.

$$
AL
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