[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 241742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave
currently located over the central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low
if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic almost 1000 miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Little development
of this system is expected during the next day or two due while
it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive
ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds.
Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms.  Some
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.  Upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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