[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure
center is along the wave near 07.5N. Precipitation: scattered
strong is within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 06N
to 11N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere
within 520 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N southward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave curves from 23N43W to 1010 mb low
pressure center that is near 19N41W. The tropical wave continues
southward, along 40W/41W, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 130 nm to
the west of the tropical wave from 19N to 22N. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm to the east of the
tropical wave from 07N to 08N, and within 330 nm to the west of
the tropical wave from 08N to 11N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 20N
southward. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm to
the east of the tropical wave from 07N to 08N, and within 330 nm
to the west of the tropical wave from 08N to 11N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are within
210 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W in the Mona
Passage, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N
southward between 60W and 72W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave passes through
parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
strong, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are within 135 nm
on either side of the tropical wave, in the waters and inland in
Central America. Isolated moderate is elsewhere, from Jamaica
southward and from Jamaica westward.

A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 21N in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 150 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 17N to 20N, in the Gulf waters and inland in
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 25N southward, in the waters
and inland, between 90W and 100W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W, just to the south of the Cabo
Verde Islands, to 14N30W, to 13N41W, curving to 08N46W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N46W, to 07N48W, 09N54W, and to 09N60W.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 30 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough, and within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough, between 15W in Mauritania and 18W in the Atlantic Ocean.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A small upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the north
central part of the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant deep
convective precipitation accompanies the feature. Broad upper
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. All the information about the tropical wave and its
accompanying precipitation is in the Tropical Waves section.

A surface trough is inland, passing through southern Alabama, to
the Florida Panhandle, to southern Mississippi. Earlier convective
precipitation that was in southern Mississippi and SE Louisiana
has been weakening and dissipating with time. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, cover the area that
is from 90W eastward.

The surface pressure pattern is flat and weak. A broad surface
ridge extends from SW Florida to the central part of the coast of
Mexico.

High pressure will dominate the basin through Friday, producing
mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds. It is likely for fresh
winds to pulse to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula, on Tuesday
night and again on Wednesday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. One is along
67W/68W. The second tropical wave is along 84W/85W. All the
information about each tropical wave and its accompanying
precipitation is in the Tropical Waves section.

An upper level trough passes through the SE Bahamas, to
Hispaniola, to the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, toward the
border of Colombia and Panama. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea from the 67W/68W tropical wave westward.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and beyond Costa Rica,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered strong is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough, between 70W and 80W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will dominate most of the eastern and
central sections of the Caribbean Sea through midweek, building
the seas to 8 to 10 feet. Fresh to locally strong winds are
expected in the Windward passage through Tuesday night. An eastern
Caribbean Sea tropical wave is expected to form a broad area of
low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. The
environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual
development, while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward, in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The southernmost point of a stationary front is 31N47W. A surface
trough is along 30N46W 26N53W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 24N northward between 44W and 60W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N70W. An
upper level trough extends from this center, southward, beyond
Hispaniola, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the Greater
Antilles northward between 61W and the Bahamas. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N to 30N
between 60W and 70W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 23N northward from 26W eastward. One upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 21N48W. It is about 360 nm to the WNW
of the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 19N41W and along
the tropical wave. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within
400 nm to the north of the 21N48W cyclonic center, and elsewhere
southward to 10N between 43W and 56W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 23N northward between 56W and 80W. A 1022 mb high pressure
center is near 33N63W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 40W eastward. A 1024
mb high pressure center is near 34N24W.

High pressure near Bermuda will dominate the forecast region
through at least Wednesday. A surface trough is forecast to
approach from the E on Thursday, possibly reaching the NE waters
on Friday. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to the N of
Hispaniola, including in the approaches to the Windward Passage,
through Tuesday night. It is possible that the pressure gradient
may increase some in the SW N Atlantic, from Tuesday night into
Wednesday, between high pressure just to the N of Bermuda and the
approaching surface trough.

$$
mt/gr
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net