[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Henri is inland, at 23/0300
UTC. HENRI is near 41.9N 73.2W, or about 140 km/75 nm to the NNE
of New York City, and about 45 km/24 nm to the WNW of Hartford in
Connecticut. HENRI is moving WNW, or 290 degrees, 07 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Henri is expected to slow down more, and possibly stall near the
border of Connecticut and New York tonight, to move across
Massachusetts on Monday afternoon and Monday night, and into the
Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCPAT3.shtml, and
the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 19N
southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
inland in Africa from 11N in Guinea to 14N in Senegal between 12W
and 15W, and from 06N to 08N between 20W and 22W in the Atlantic
Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 120
nm on either side of the line 11N17W 06N22W 03N28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W, from 21N southward.
The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. This wave was re-positioned
based on the long-loop satellite imagery. A 1011 mb low pressure
center is near 13N along the tropical wave. Precipitation:
scattered strong is from 130 nm to 250 nm of the 1011 mb low
pressure center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 460 nm to the west of the tropical wave
from 05N to 18N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 20N
southward. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
any nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough.

A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along 57W/58W from 07N
to 14N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 20N
southward. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to 15N
between 53W and 67W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W, from 20N southward.
The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The eastern
extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along
10N74W in Colombia beyond 11N76W in southern Nicaragua.
Precipitation: numerous strong is in Colombia and NW Venezuela
from 07N to 10N between 71W at the SW part of Lake Maracaibo in NW
Venezuela and 74W in Colombia. Strong rainshowers in individual
clusters extend northwestward, away from the monsoon trough where
it crosses 80W, into NE Nicaragua. Strong rainshowers are in
Panama from 80W westward, and in the coastal waters near 07N81W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 21N at the
eastern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula, southward, through
Honduras, into the E Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving W 10 to 15
knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 360 nm to the
west of the tropical wave, from the monsoon trough near 12N to 17N
in Belize, and in the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 15N
northward between the 79W tropical wave and the 87W/88W tropical
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to the 1011 mb low pressure center that is
along the 33W tropical wave, to 09N42W and 08N52W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level cyclonic circulation center, that was in the east
central Yucatan Peninsula 24 hours ago, now is in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, near 20N95W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is inland, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico between 94W and 97W. Broken to overcast convective
debris clouds cover the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 24N
southward from 88W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the remainder of the area.

The surface pressure pattern is currently weak. A broad surface
ridge extends from 27N82W in western Florida to the north central
Gulf of Mexico, toward the upper Texas Gulf coast.

High pressure will dominate the basin into midweek. Fresh to
possibly locally strong winds will pulse to the west of the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and again on Tuesday night and on
Wednesday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. One is along
62W/63W. The second tropical wave is along 79W. The third tropical
wave is along 87W/88W. All the information about each tropical
wave and its accompanying precipitation is in the Tropical Waves
section.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 17N
southward between 67W and the 79W tropical wave. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Fresh to strong trade winds will dominate most of the east and
the central Caribbean Sea through midweek, building the sea heights
to 8 to 10 feet. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected also
in the Windward Passage through Tuesday night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 29N
northward between 74W in the Atlantic Ocean and the border of
Mississippi and Alabama. An inland surface trough passes through
the eastern sections of North Carolina, to central Georgia, to
southern Alabama and southern Mississippi. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N to 33N between
74W and 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is inland, from
30N in the Florida Panhandle to 32N between SE Georgia to the
border of SW Alabama and SE Mississippi.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a cyclonic circulation
center, is along the coast of Morocco from 28N to 31N between the
coast and 15W. An upper level trough is along 31N35W, to a
23N46W cyclonic circulation center, to a 24N68W cyclonic
circulation center, to the Windward Passage. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 13N to
31N between 35W and 56W. A surface frontal boundary is to the
north of the area. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is to the north of the line 31N40W 26N50W 24N60W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N northward between 53W and 80W. A 1022 mb high pressure
center is near 30N62W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward from 32W eastward. A 1024
mb high pressure center is near 34N23W.

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail east and across the
Bahamas through Monday, except for fresh to locally strong winds
at night to the north of Hispaniola, and in the approaches to the
Windward Passage. A tropical wave will move across the area by
mid-week, with fresh to possibly locally strong winds ahead of
it.

$$
mt
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