[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Henri is centered near 41.6N 72.4W at 22/2100 UTC
or 90 nm NE of New York City moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 15 ft
within 90 nm over the S semicircle. On the forecast track, Henri
is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the
Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern
Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to this analysis, with axis
extending along 17W from 04N-20N. Scattered showers are noted in
the vicinity of the wave axis mainly south of 10N.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W from 21N
southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 35W and 40W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 47W from
19N southward and moving W near 15 kt. No significant convection
is related to this wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 61W from 20N
southward to Venezuela, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 11N to 15N
between 58W and 65W, including the Windward Islands.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from SE Cuba southward
across Jamaica to W Colombia, and moving W near 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis mainly south of
78W.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 21N southward
across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica into the E Pacific
Ocean, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident across the W central and NW
parts of the basin west of 82W, including the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 16N17W
through a low pressure near 13N32W to 12N50W. The ITCZ then
continues from 12N50W to 13N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is present S of the monsoon trough from 03N to 10N and east of
30W, within the low from 06N to 16N between 30W-40W, and within
60 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge stretches east-southeastward from S Texas across
the N central Gulf to central Florida. Modest convergent winds
near the ridge axis are coupling with upper-level wind shear to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the
Florida Panhandle and Keys. Otherwise, gentle to moderate ESE to
SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the SW Gulf; and light to
gentle winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin for the
next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse west
of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the N central and E Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas at 3 to 4 ft are seen at the W basin,
while moderate to fresh with locally strong trades and seas at 4
to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate
through midweek. Pulses of strong winds will begin tonight
offshore Colombia and over much of the central and portions of
the northeast Caribbean. These higher winds will prevail through
Tue, and causes seas to increase to 8 to 10 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional
convection across the Atlantic Basin.

A large 1023 mb Bermuda high near 30N61W dominates much of the
Atlantic. Convergent S to SW winds N the ridge axis are causing
scattered showers and thunderstorms off the N Florida-Georgia
coast, N of 28N and west of 74W. Light to gentle winds and seas
at 4 to 5 ft are noted just S of the ridge axis, N of 25N between
24W and 75W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail N of 29N
and W of 75W. Gentle to moderate NE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft
are near the Canary Islands N of 23N between the NW African coast
and 24W. A belt of moderate to fresh trades and seas at 4 to 6
ft exist from 12N to 24N between the coast of Africa and the
Lesser Antilles/Bahamas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and
seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail across the rest of the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds
will prevail east and across the Bahamas through Mon, except for
fresh to locally strong winds at night north of Hispaniola and
the approaches to the Windward Passage. A tropical wave will move
across the area by mid-week with fresh to possibly locally
strong winds ahead of it.

$$
ERA
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