[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 210858
TCDAT2

Hurricane Grace Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Hurricane Grace made landfall around 0600 UTC this morning near
Tecolutla, Mexico with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt.
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the hurricane
earlier tonight and found winds supporting an intensity of 105 kt.
After the aircraft left the cyclone, the satellite appearance
continued to improve with the eye clearing and becoming
better-defined. Therefore, it is assumed that some additional
strengthening occurred before landfall. Since that time, the
inner-core of Grace has moved inland over eastern Mexico and recent
radar and satellite images show a pronounced degradation of the eye
and eyewall. Based on this trend, the initial advisory intensity has
been lowered to 95 kt.

Grace is moving a little south of west, or 260/12 kt. A westward
motion is forecast to continue through tonight until the cyclone
dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one and is in line with the track consensus guidance.

The hurricane's forecast motion will take it over the mountainous
terrain of interior Mexico today into tonight. Therefore, rapid
weakening is expected and the latest NHC intensity forecast for
Grace is near the Decay SHIPS guidance. By tonight, the low-level
circulation is expected to dissipate over the higher terrain. As
mentioned in previous advisories, the mid-level vortex of Grace is
forecast to survive the westward passage over Mexico and reach the
eastern Pacific late this weekend where a new tropical cyclone is
expected to form.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely to
continue along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico for
the next few hours within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto
Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead
to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood
of mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 20.5N  97.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 20.2N  99.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0600Z 20.1N 101.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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