[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201249 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0900 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

Updated Special Features Section Below

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Grace is now a hurricane and centered near 20.6N 93.7W at 20/1200
UTC or 140 nm ENE of Veracruz Mexico moving W at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently 26 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within near the
center from 19N to 22N between 92W and 96W. Grace will move
inland to 20.3N 97.4W Saturday morning, and weaken to a tropical
storm near 19.8N 99.7W Sat afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near
19.4N 102.2W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Henri is centered near 30.0N 73.7W at 20/1200 UTC
or 325 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and moving WNW at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are
currently 24 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 28N to 31N between 72W and 75W. Henri will move to
31.0N 73.5W this afternoon, then north of the area to 33.0N 72.9W
Sat morning, and strengthen to a hurricane well north of the area
near 36.1N 71.8W Sat afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 32W south of 21N,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 15N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 42W south of 21N,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 11N between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean Sea along 63W
south of 22N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are near the tropical wave axis, mainly
from 12N to 17N between 59W and 66W. Moisture associated with
this wave will continue to impact the eastern Caribbean and parts
of the Lesser Antilles today.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 75W south of 22N,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is over water however
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over portions of
northern Colombia and far northwest Venezuela, including the Lake
Maracaibo region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W
to 13N30W to 10N51W. The ITCZ then extends from 10N51W to 10N61W.
In addition to the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 16N between
the coast of Africa and 23W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough
extends into the southwest Caribbean Sea from near the Costa
Rica-Panama border to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 76W
and 81W, and from 10N to 15N between 81W and 84W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical
Storm Grace.

Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Grace, fairly
tranquil weather conditions are observed across the Gulf of
Mexico with 1018 mb high pressure analyzed near 29N87W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are in the northeast Gulf under the high
along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, with worsening conditions elsewhere
toward Grace.

For the forecast, Grace will strengthen to a hurricane near 20.6N
95.2W this afternoon, move inland to 20.3N 97.4W Sat morning, and
weaken to a tropical storm near 19.8N 99.7W Sat afternoon, weaken
to a remnant low near 19.4N 102.2W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun
afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of Grace and
prevail through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E-SE winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras
region early this morning due to a locally tight pressure
gradient, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh trades prevail elsewhere along with seas of 3 to 6 ft,
locally to 7 ft offshore of the northern coast of Colombia.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
Caribbean from north of the A-B-C Islands to south of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola between 65W and 71W, with similar activity in the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate
elsewhere, except for nightly pulsing locally fresh to strong
winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night, and also in the
central Caribbean early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical
Storm Henri.

Tropical Storm Henri is the only source of deep convection noted
across the tropical Atlantic as the basin remains under the
control of a broad 1022 mb subtropical ridge anchored near 32N54W.
Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted in the waters surrounding
the Canary Islands and off the northwest coast of Africa. Seas in
this region are in the 6 to 9 ft range. Another area of moderate
to fresh easterlies is observed from 15N to 29N and between 35W
and 65W. Seas across this area are mainly 5 to 7 ft, locally to 8
ft near 22.5N78W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the rest of
the basin with seas of 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, Henri will move to 31.0N 73.5W this
afternoon, then north of the area to 33.0N 72.9W Sat morning,
strengthening to a hurricane well north of the area near 36.1N
71.8W Sat afternoon. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E to SE winds
will prevail E and across the Bahamas Fri through Mon, except for
fresh to locally strong winds at night north of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage.

$$

Chan
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