[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KWNH 191425
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number  40
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL062021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for parts of New York and central
New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 74.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 15
mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches across
eastern New York and New England through tonight. This rainfall
could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts.

The flood risk associated with Fred is expected to diminish by
early Friday.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES:
A brief tornado is possible over southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Churchill/Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 43.0N  74.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  20/0000Z 43.7N  72.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1200Z 44.5N  68.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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