[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Grace is centered near 20.1N 87.5W at 19/0945 UTC or 10
nm S of Tulum Mexico moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are 28 ft. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 17N to 21N between 83W and 87W. Grace
made landfall along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum, is
expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over
the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Grace
is expected to weaken as it crosses Yucatan, but re-intensification
is expected when the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Henri is centered near 29.5N 69.5W at 19/0900 UTC
or 460 nm SE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving W at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are 23 ft.
Numerous moderate convection is from 27N to 31N between 67W and
73W. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well
offshore the east coast of the United States over the next couple
of days but could approach southeastern New England on Sunday. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Henri is
expected to become a hurricane by Friday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 19N with axis near 26W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N
between 20W and 31W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 19N with axis near 37W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N
between 32W and 47W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 56W, moving
W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms associated with it
are affecting the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave extends S of 20N with axis near 69W, moving W at
around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is currently
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 16N17W to 12N35W to 10N45W.
The ITCZ then extends from 10N45W to 08N59W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is from 09N to 18N between 14W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Grace.

Fresh to storm force winds are affecting the northern Yucatan
peninsula adjacent waters and the Yucatan channel as Grace
continue to move inland. Gentle to moderate return flow is
elsewhere as the basin continue to be under the influence of a
surface ridge.

Grace will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 89.7W this
afternoon, reach near 20.6N 92.6W Fri morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 20.5N 95.0W Fri afternoon, move inland and weaken
to a tropical storm near 20.1N 97.3W Sat morning, weaken to a
tropical depression near 19.7N 100.1W Sat afternoon, and dissipate
Sun morning. Conditions associated with Grace will affect the Bay
of Campeche tonight through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Grace.

Grace will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 89.7W this
afternoon, 20.6N 92.6W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near
20.5N 95.0W Fri afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 20.1N 97.3W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical
depression near 19.7N 100.1W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun
morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate
elsewhere, except for locally fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras and south-central Caribbean through tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm
Henri and on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

The 1026 mb Azores-Bermuda subtropical ridge remains the dominant
feature in the tropical Atlantic outside of Tropical Storm Henri.
This is allowing for fairly tranquil weather conditions across the
basin. However, a few showers are noted east of the Lesser
Antilles from 13N to 16N and between 56W and 60W. The strong high
pressure system and lower pressures over NW Africa result in a
tight pressure gradient over the NE Atlantic. Recent scatterometer
satellite data show strong to near gale-force N-NE winds
surrounding the Canary Islands and off the coasts of Morocco and
Western Sahara. Seas in this area are in the 5-8 ft range. An
area of fresh to strong NE winds is noted from 19N to 29N and
between 35W and 50W, with seas of 5-8 ft. Winds in the rest of
the basin are moderate to fresh with seas in the 2-5 ft range.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Storm Henri near 29.8N
68.5W 995 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Henri will move to 29.8N 69.9W Thu
morning, 30.0N 71.8W Thu evening, strengthen to a hurricane near
30.7N 72.7W Fri morning, 32.3N 72.8W Fri evening, 34.4N 71.8W Sat
morning, and 36.9N 70.7W Sat evening. Henri will change little in
intensity as it moves near 40.4N 69.4W late Sun. Elsewhere, high
pressure will persist across the forecast waters through the
period. Fresh east to southeast winds over the far southwest part
of the area will shift W to the Straits of Florida tonight.

$$
Ramos
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