[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fred is centered inland near 29.9N 85.3W at
16/2100 UTC or 20 nm NW of Apalachicola Florida, moving NNE at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 29N
between 84W to 87W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north
of 25N and east of 85W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are expected
within 75 nm SE quadrant and 60 NM SW quadrant, with maximum
seas of 18 ft. Rapid weakening is expected, and Fred should
become a tropical depression by early Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Fred will move from western Georgia on Tuesday across the
southern Appalachian Mountains to West Virginia by Wednesday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Depression Grace is centered near 17.9N 72.4W at
16/2100 UTC or 40 nm S of Port Au Prince Haiti moving WNW at 11
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 21N
between 70W and 75W, while scattered moderate convection is
noted from 16N to 24N between 65W and 70W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail
within the strongest convection. Strengthening is forecast during
the next few days, and Grace is expected to regain tropical
storm status on Tuesday. Grace could be near hurricane strength
when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday
night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Depression Eight has intensified to Tropical Storm
Henri, centered near 31.0N 62.9W at 16/2100 UTC, or 130 nm SE of
Bermuda, moving SSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
in the southern semicircle from 28N to 31N between 61W and 64W.
Seas near the convection range between 7 and 9 ft. A slow
clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the
center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 35W
from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 26W-38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 84W
from south of 21N to northern Costa Rica. THe wave is moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
over land mainly south of 15N between 83W-88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 11N30W to 08N44W. The ITCZ is analyzed 08N52W to
07N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near
the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N E of 27W to the coast of
Africa, and near the ITCZ from 07N to 09N between 52W to 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Fred.

Moderate south to southeast winds were detected over the SE Gulf
by the latest ASCAT pass, while light to gentle easterly winds
prevail across the western Gulf. Seas are 2-3 ft in the western
Gulf and increasing to 4 to 8 ft towards the E and NE associated
to from Tropical Storm Fred. The diurnal trough is analyzed over
the Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 20N94W. Scattered showers are
noted near the trough axis.

For the forecast, T.S. Fred will move inland to 31.5N 85.1W Tue
morning, and continue well inland on Tue afternoon with winds and
waves diminishing over the Gulf. Tropical Depression Grace is
expected to strengthen to a tropical storm and reach the Yucatan
Channel Thu morning, move to near the N coast of Yucatan Thu
afternoon, and become a hurricane over the W Gulf by Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Depression
Grace and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

Outside of the wind field of Grace, latest ASCAT data depicts
moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean and light to
gentle trades west of 70W, pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are 2-3 ft over the central and eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, Grace will move over Haiti Tue morning, strengthen
to a tropical storm between Jamaica and Cuba Tue afternoon,
south of central Cuba Wed morning, south of W Cuba Wed afternoon,
over the Yucatan Channel Thu morning, and near the N coast of
Yucatan Thu afternoon. Elsewhere the NE to E trades will be fresh
to strong over the S central Caribbean Tue and Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the sections above for details on upgraded
Tropical Storm Henri and the tropical waves moving across the
basin.

Surface ridging and a weak pressure gradient prevails across the
tropical Atlantic. Mainly moderate trades are pulsing to fresh
winds from 24N to the coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds are over the western Atlantic, including
the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Light winds are north of 24N
between 31W and 64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted from 26N and west of 74W. Gentle to moderate trades are
south of 24N in the remainder of the basin, except moderate N to
NW winds noted North of 18N to the Canary Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft
to the far east and near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic
south of 24N and east of 68W. Seas are 3-4 ft near the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Grace will
move over Haiti Tue morning, strengthen to a tropical storm
between Jamaica and Cuba Tue afternoon, and continue westward in
the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico afterwards. Tropical Storm
Henri will move to 30.5N 63.4W Tue morning, 30.3N 64.2W Tue
afternoon, 30.2N 65.4W Wed morning, 30.2N 66.9W Wed afternoon,
30.3N 68.5W Thu morning, and 30.5N 69.9W Thu afternoon. Henri
will change little in intensity as it moves to 31.8N 70.2W Fri
afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure will persist across the area
through the period.

$$
ERA
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