[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 27.9N 86.0W at 16/0900 UTC
or 140 nm south of Panama City, Florida moving N at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate
convection is seen from 26N to 30N between 83W and 86W. Scattered
moderate convection is over and offshore of the SW Florida
Peninsula from 25N to 27N between 81W and 83W. Seas are 10-14 ft
in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Fred's forward speed will increase
slightly today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should
move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make
landfall in the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early
evening. Some slight strengthening is forecast before landfall.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Grace is centered near 17.4N 70.2W at 16/0900
UTC or 140 nm east-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti, moving
W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to
19N between 66W and 72W, including the Mona Passage. A general
westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola
later today, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or
just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Eight is was centered near 32.4N 63.1W or
about 95 nm E of Bermuda. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. The depression is moving SSW at 4 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 30N to 33N between 61W and
64W. A slow clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during
the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion
on Wed . On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
pass to the southeast and south of Bermuda during the next few
days.T he depression is forecast to become a tropical storm late
today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W
from 04N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-08N between 27W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 47W from
03N to 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm east and 180 nm west of the wave
from 06N to 09N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from south of
20N to northern Panama. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No
convection is noted with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Senegal and
Mauritania near 16N16W to 12N23W to 06N44W. The ITCZ is analyzed
from 07N47W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is near the monsoon trough from 05N
to 10N between 20W-27W and within 60 nm of the monsoon trough
between 34W-42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Fred.

Moderate south winds were detected over the SE Gulf by an
overnight ASCAT pass. Light to gentle NE to E winds prevail across
the basin west of 88W. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central Gulf in NE
to E swell from Tropical Storm Fred. 3-5 ft seas are analyzed in
the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and in the north-
central Gulf west of 90W. Seas are 3 ft or less in the western
Gulf.

For the forecast, Fred will move to near 29.1N 86.1W this
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, then
inland and to near 31.0N 85.7W late tonight with maximum sustained
winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt and weaken to a tropical depression near
33.1N 85.2W Tue afternoon. Tropical Depression Grace over the
Caribbean Sea is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm and
move into the southeastern Gulf Wed night, then track in a general
westward direction toward Mexico through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Grace.

Overnight ASCAT data showed light to gentle trades west of 70W,
pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of Honduras. East of 70W and
outside of the wind field of Tropical Depression Grace, E to SE
winds are mainly moderate. Seas are 3-5 ft east of 72W and less
than 3 ft west of 72W.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Grace near 17.4N 70.2W 1010
mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Grace will move to near 17.9N 72.2W this afternoon,
to near 18.6N 74.8W late tonight, then strengthen to a tropical
storm near 19.3N 77.4W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds
35 kt gusts 45 kt. Grace will move to near 20.1N 80.2W late Tue
night, to near 20.8N 83.3W Wed afternoon and to the Yucatan
Channel late Wed night. Grace will change little in intensity as
it continues west across the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Depression Eight.

Surface ridging and a weak pressure gradient prevails across the
tropical Atlantic. Mainly moderate trades are pulsing to fresh
near the coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds are over he western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos. Light winds are north of 24N between 31W and
64W. Gentle to moderate trades are south of 24N in the remainder
of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft near Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic south of 22N and east of 65W. Seas are 3-5 ft near the
Lesser Antilles, and 3-6 ft in the remainder of the discussion
waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Eight will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 31.6N 63.1W this afternoon,
with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. It will move to
near 31.1N 63.7W late tonight, to near 30.7N 64.5W Tue afternoon,
to near 30.7N 65.5W late Tue night, to near 30.8N 66.7W Wed
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near
31.1N 68.0W late Wed night and change little in intensity as it
moves to near 32.0N 69.0W late Thu night. Otherwise, high pressure
will persist across the area through the period.

$$
Aguirre
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