[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 151555
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>015-026-108-112-114-115-127-160000-

Tropical Storm Fred Local Statement Advisory Number 24
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL062021
1155 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 /1055 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning and a Storm Surge Warning have been issued for Coastal
      Franklin
    - A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Coastal Jefferson and
      Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Henry and Houston
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Central Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, Holmes,
      Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, North Walton, South
      Walton, and Washington
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Calhoun, Jackson,
      and Liberty
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been
      issued for Coastal Wakulla

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Coastal Jefferson and
      Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coffee, Dale, Geneva,
      Henry, and Houston
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calhoun, Central
      Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland
      Franklin, Inland Gulf, Jackson, Liberty, North Walton, South
      Walton, and Washington
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Franklin and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 280 miles south of Panama City or about 250 miles south
      of Apalachicola
    - 26.1N 84.9W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Fred has reformed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with
maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and is moving to the
north-northwest. The center of circulation reformed further east and
in turn, the track of Fred has shifted slightly eastward as well. Fred
will continue moving north-northwestward today with a gradual turn to
the north expected tonight into Monday. Fred is expected to remain a
tropical storm as it makes landfall on the northern Gulf coast Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. Fred will begin to weaken after landfall
and will continue northward into central Alabama Tuesday afternoon.
There remains some uncertainty with the track of Fred and additional
shifts in the track are possible up until landfall.

The primary hazard with Fred is expected to be heavy rainfall and
flooding. A widespread 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts
near 12 inches will be possible across the Florida Panhandle, with a
widespread 3 to 5 inches, isolated 9 inches possible for Southeast
Alabama, portions of Southwest Georgia, and the western Florida Big
Bend. If realized, these amounts would likely cause flash flooding and
river flooding across the area. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
Tallahassee to Albany and areas westward.

The storm surge threat has increase across portions of Apalachee Bay with 2-4
feet of storm surge inundation possible from Franklin to Taylor counties.
Elsewhere, 1-3 feet of storm surge inundation is possible along the coast.

Tropical storm force winds are most likely to begin early Monday along the
coast and preparations should be completed today. With the gusty winds, downed
trees and powerlines will be possible, resulting in some power outages. In
addition, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly on Monday.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Panhandle, western Big Bend, Southeast
Alabama, and SW Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts elsewhere across the area.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Apalachee Bay from Indian Pass to a Steinhatchee River.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the Dixie County coast and the Florida Panhandle.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
In addition, hazardous beach conditions are expected along the coast with a high
risk of rip currents and high surf.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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