[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
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emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Aug 15 04:20:19 CDT 2021
WTUS82 KTAE 150919
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ALZ065-066-068-FLZ007>010-012-014-015-108-112-114-115-151730-
Remnants Of Fred Local Statement Advisory Number 23
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL062021
519 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 /419 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021/
This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
**TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Central Walton,
Coastal Bay, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coffee, Dale,
Geneva, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, North
Walton, South Walton, and Washington
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Central Walton, Coastal
Bay, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coffee, Dale, Geneva,
Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, North Walton,
South Walton, and Washington
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 400 miles south of Panama City or about 370 miles south
of Apalachicola
- 24.4N 84.6W
- Storm Intensity 40 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 8 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred are continuing to get better
organized as they enter the southeastern Gulf this morning. Fred is
forecast to become a tropical storm again today as it moves north-
northwestward across the eastern Gulf before turning to the north as
it approaches the Gulf coast Monday night. There is still considerable
uncertainty with the track of Fred as the center has not fully
reformed at this time, and therefore the models are having a hard time
initializing the location of the system. Once the center reforms, we
should have a much clearer picture of the eventual track and intensity
forecast. With the latest eastward trend, aforementioned uncertainty,
and an expansion in the forecast wind radii, we have issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for our Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend counties as
well as portions of SE Alabama.
The primary hazard with Fred is expected to be heavy rainfall and
flooding. A widespread 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts
near 12 inches will be possible across the Florida Panhandle, with a
widespread 3 to 5 inches, isolated 9 inches possible for Southeast
Alabama, portions of Southwest Georgia, and the western Florida Big
Bend. If realized, these amounts would likely cause flash flooding and
river flooding across the area. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch has
been issued from Tallahassee to Albany and areas westward.
Other hazards with Fred may include sustained tropical storm force
winds in the Tropical Storm Watch area with gusts to tropical storm
force possible further inland. Gusty winds can cause scattered tree
damage and power outages. A few tornadoes will be possible with the
outer bands of Fred. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet will be possible
along our Florida Panhandle and Big Bend Coast, including Apalachee
Bay. These values could cause minor coastal flooding in some areas.
Additionally rough marine conditions, high surf, deadly rip currents,
and beach erosion are expected. Impacts are forecast to begin to
arrive as early as late tonight or early Monday morning. Conditions
should improve Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Panhandle, western Big Bend, Southeast
Alabama, and SW Georgia. Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts elsewhere across the area.
* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
Florida Panhandle, coastal western Big Bend, and SE Alabama. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Potential impacts in this
area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
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