[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Aug 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fred is over the N coast of Cuba at 22.7N
80.6W at 0300 UTC, or about 150 nm SSE of Key West, Florida. It
is moving W at 10 kt with an estimated minimum central pressure
at 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Wave heights with Fred are in the 8-12 ft range. Latest
satellite imagery indicate scattered to numerous moderate
convection over S central Cuba and near the N coast of Jamaica.
Fred is expected to continue moving WNW near the N coast of
central Cuba through this morning, then gradually turning NW this
afternoon. This track will bring Fred near the Florida Keys this
evening, and then over the E Gulf on Sunday. Little change in
strength is expected through this morning. After that, slow
strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm
early this evening or later tonight near the Florida Keys.
Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally amounts up to 6 inches are
possible over the Keys, S Florida and Gulf coast of Florida.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Tropical Depression Seven is located at 15.5N 53.8W at 0300 UTC
or about 540 nm E of the Leeward Islands. It is moving W at 18 kt
with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Wave heights
with this system are in the 7-10 ft range. This depression is
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly to
W of the center. A WNW track will take this system over the
Leeward Islands tonight, then near the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico on Sunday and the Dominican Republic on Monday. Modest
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 20N southward and
moving W near 20 kt. No significant convection is associated to
this wave.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 22N southward, and
is interacting with Tropical Depression Seven mentioned in the
Special Features section. This wave is expected to be absorbed
into the depression later this morning.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W from 24N southward across
the Leeward Islands to Venezuela, and is moving W near 10 kt.
Enhanced by an upper-level low to the N near 29N62W, scattered to
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 18N
to 25N between 56W and 65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
N of Venezuela, and across central Venezuela.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 19N southward
along the E coast of Honduras and Nicaragua to Costa Rica, and is
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are found near the Honduras-Nicaragua border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 10N21W to 06N35W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N35W
to near 06N46W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the
monsoon trough from 05N to 14N between the coast of Africa and
26W. No significant convection is near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated upper-level low across the E Gulf near 26N84W is
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
SE Gulf and W coast of Florida. Otherwise a modest ridge of high
pressure across the N Gulf coast states is supporting gentle winds
and seas of 1 to 3 ft over most of the Gulf. The exception will
be the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida, increasing pressure
gradient between the ridge and Tropical Depression Fred is
creating moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, expect deteriorating marine conditions across
the Straits of Florida later today, the Florida Keys this evening
and then the SE Gulf through the weekend as Tropical Depression
Fred approaches that area. Fred was near 22.7N 80.6W with 1013 mb
at 11 PM EDT and moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds were
30 kt with gusts 40 kt. Fred is anticipated to strengthen to a
tropical storm over the Florida Straits near 24.8N 83.6W this
evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt before
moving over the E Gulf to near 26.3N 85.0W Sun morning. It will
then track NNW to the NE Gulf near 29.2N 86.6W Mon morning and
strengthen further to 45 kt with gusts 55 kt. Fred could make
landfall along the Florida Panhandle on Mon evening with peak
intensity at 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Fred will weaken to a
tropical depression over Alabama Tue evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Depression Fred, and the Tropical Waves section for convection in
the Caribbean Basin.

Gentle to moderate trade winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident
over the central and E basin. Light to gentle trades and seas of
1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Seven was near 15.5N 53.8W
at 1010 mb at 11 PM EDT and moving W at 18 kt. Maximum sustained
winds were 30 kt with gusts 40 kt. Tropical Depression Seven will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.0N 56.8W later this
morning with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. It is expected to move near 16.7N 60.3W this evening, near
17.5N 63.5W Sun morning, inland to near 18.3N 66.2W Sun evening,
to near 18.9N 68.2W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 45 kt
gusts 55 kt and inland to 19.6N 70.4W Mon evening. Tropical
cyclone Seven will change little in intensity as it moves to the
21.7N 74.3W Tue evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Aided by divergent winds associated with an upper-level low over
the E Gulf, a surface trough E of Florida near 28N78W is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the E Florida
coast and NW Bahamas. For additional convection across the
Atlantic Basin, refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections above. For more information on Tropical
Depressions Fred and Seven, read the Special Features section.

The Atlantic ridge extends WSW from the 1026 mb Azores high across
Bermuda to N Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
related to this ridge are found N of 25N between 27W and 72W.
Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found
from 10N to 25N between the African coast and Lesser Antilles, and
between 72W and the Florida-Georgia coast. South of 10N, gentle
to moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Fred near 22.7N
80.6W 1013 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Fred will move to neat 23.4N 81.9W Sat
morning, then strengthen to a tropical storm over the Gulf of
Mexico near 24.8N 83.6W Sat evening. Numerous squalls and
thunderstorms associated over the far southwest part will
gradually shift westward through Sat. Tropical Depression Seven
near 15.5N 53.8W 1010 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 18 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Tropical Depression Seven will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.0N 56.8W Sat morning with
maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 16.7N
60.3W Sat evening, near 17.5N 63.5W Sun morning, inland to near
18.3N 66.2W Sun evening, to near 18.9N 68.2W Mon morning with
maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and inland to 19.6N
70.4W Mon evening.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net