[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KKEY 140333
HLSKEY
FLZ076>078-141045-

Tropical Depression Fred Local Statement Advisory Number 18
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL062021
1133 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for the Middle and Upper
 Keys**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for Monroe Middle
      Keys and Monroe Upper Keys

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 150 miles south-southeast of Key West FL
    - 22.7N 80.6W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement West or 280 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1100 PM EDT, Tropical Depression Fred has changed little in
strength this evening, and continues to move westward at 12 mph near
the north coast of central Cuba. The center of Tropical Depression Fred
is expected to track northwestward and move into the distant Straits
of Florida Saturday morning. Fred is expected to track near or west of
the Dry Tortugas Saturday evening. Fred is anticipated to slowly
strengthen into a tropical storm as it pulls away from the Dry
Tortugas.

Despite another westward shift in track, weather conditions are still
expected to steadily deteriorate as thundery squalls become more
frequent across the Florida Keys overnight. The potential risk for
multiple hazards remains unchanged for the Florida Keys, including
flooding rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and treacherous marine
conditions. The chances for tropical storm force winds have dropped for
the Middle and Upper Keys. Tropical storm conditions are most likely
to arrive Saturday morning, mainly in the Lower Keys. Conditions will
gradually improve late Saturday.

Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts,
may cause significant rainwater flooding of roadways and poor drainage
areas. A Flood Watch is in effect from tonight through late Saturday
night. Heavy rainfall will be exacerbated during the times of high
tide.

At this time, there is little if any potential for coastal flooding.
However, significant wave overwash along south-facing shorelines will
be possible, especially near the times of high tide early Saturday and
Sunday mornings.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the Lower Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Isolated power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across the Florida Keys, little to no wind impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time across the
Florida Keys.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
No mandatory evacuations are expected for this storm.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of possible
flooding and strong winds in squalls.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground.
Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don't
drown.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible with this storm. Have multiple
ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
  monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 600 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

CLR
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