[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Aug 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fred is moving along the northern coast of
Cuba at 22.3N 79.6W at 2100 UTC, or about 185 nm southeast of Key
West, Florida. It is moving W at 10 kt with an estimated minimum
central pressure at 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Wave heights with Fred are in the 8-12 ft
range. Latest satellite imagery depict most of the convection over
the south and eastern quadrant of Fred, affecting portions of
Cuba, Jamaica and the Bahamas. Fred is expected to continue moving
along or near the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be
near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the
west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow
strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm
again tonight or Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fred
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Tropical Depression Seven is located at 15.4N 51.8W at 2100 UTC
or about 590 nm east of the Leeward Islands. It is moving W at 19
kt with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Wave heights
with this system are in the 7-10 ft range. The depression is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the
northwest of the center. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over
the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday, and then move near
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday night through Monday.
Modest strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fred
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 21N,
and it is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated to this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W, south of 23N,
and it is moving W at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 210 nm W of the wave axis from
12N to 23N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted near the
wave axis in the SE Caribbean.

Another Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W, south of
16N, extending into the E Pacific Ocean. It is moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
between the wave axis and the Caribbean coast of Central America south
of 12N and west of 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THe monsoon trough extends across the coast of W Africa near 18N16W
to 07N27W and to 07N35W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N35W to
near 07N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 04.5N to the monsoon trough and between the coast of
Africa and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure prevails across the northern Gulf coast
states, and is combining with the approaching Tropical Depression
Six to produce light to moderate NE to E winds across most of the
basin. An energetic upper level trough across the E Gulf along 85W
is acting to enhance afternoon convection across the SE Gulf and
the Florida Peninsula. Earlier active weather across the coastal
zones of Louisiana and SE Texas has become isolated. Seas of 3 ft
or less generally prevail across the Gulf, except to 6 ft in the
Straits of Florida as increasing winds approach the region.

Look for deteriorating marine conditions across the Straits of
Florida and then the SE Gulf through the weekend as Tropical
Depression Fred approaches that area. Tropical Depression Fred
was located near 22.3N 79.6W 1013 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 10
kt. Fred will move inland across Cuba to 23.0N 81.0W Sat morning,
strengthen to a tropical storm near 24.2N 82.6W Sat afternoon,
25.4N 83.7W Sun morning, 27.0N 84.8W Sun afternoon, 28.8N 85.7W
Mon morning, and 30.2N 86.2W Mon afternoon. Fred will weaken to a
tropical depression while moving inland over 33.5N 86.5W by Tue
afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection associated to Fred and to the waves
described in the Tropical Waves section, the rest of the basin
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. E of 79W, moderate to
fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Gentle to moderate trades
and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Seven was located near
15.4N 51.8W 1010 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 19 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Seven will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 15.9N 54.7W Sat morning, move to 16.4N 58.5W
Sat afternoon, 17.0N 61.9W Sun morning, 17.7N 65.0W Sun afternoon,
18.4N 67.7W Mon morning, and inland to 19.0N 70.3W Mon afternoon.
Seven will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.9N 74.7W
by Tue afternoon. Otherwise, diminished trade winds can be
expected across the basin though the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of a trough extend from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas,
while an upper level trough is over the E Gulf of Mexico along
85W, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near
the trough axis and off central Florida. A weak trough extends
from a low pressure system near 36N33W to 29N45W and it is only
producing a few showers near the trough axis. Tranquil weather
conditions are prevalent across the rest of the tropical Atlantic
under a broad Bermuda-Azores ridge. South of 25N, moderate to
fresh easterly breezes and 5-7 ft seas prevail. North of 25N,
gentle to moderate winds and 3-7 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Seven located near
15.4N 51.8W 1010 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 19 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Seven will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 15.9N 54.7W Sat morning, move to 16.4N 58.5W
Sat afternoon, 17.0N 61.9W Sun morning, 17.7N 65.0W Sun afternoon,
18.4N 67.7W Mon morning, and inland to 19.0N 70.3W Mon afternoon.
Seven will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.9N 74.7W
by Tue afternoon. Otherwise, a modest Atlantic ridge will prevail
with moderate to fresh trade winds prevailing south of 24N into
next week.

$$
Stripling
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