[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KKEY 131516
HLSKEY
FLZ076>078-132330-

Tropical Depression Fred Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL062021
1116 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys,
      Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe Upper Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 260 miles southeast of Key West FL or about 240 miles
      southeast of Marathon FL or about 230 miles southeast of Key
      Largo FL
    - 22.3N 78.4W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1100 AM EDT, Tropical Depression Fred has changed little in
strength this morning, and continues to move to the west-northwest at
10 mph very near the north central Cuban coast. On the forecast track,
the center of Tropical Depression Fred will continue moving along or
just north of central Cuba today and tonight, and after a turn to the
northwest, will be near the Florida Keys early Saturday. Fred is
expected to slowly intensify back to tropical storm strength as it
approaches the Florida Keys. Weather conditions will steadily
deteriorate with thundery squalls becoming more frequent across the
Florida Keys late this afternoon and evening.

The potential risk for multiple hazards remains unchanged for the
Florida Keys, including flooding rainfall, tropical storm force winds,
especially in squalls, isolated tornadoes, and treacherous marine
conditions. Tropical storm conditions are most likely to arrive early
Saturday morning, with conditions not likely to improve until Saturday
evening.

Heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
8 inches, may cause significant rainwater flooding of roadways and
poor drainage areas. A Flood Watch is in effect from this evening
through late Saturday night. Heavy rainfall will be exacerbated during
the times of high tide.

At this time, there is little if any potential for coastal flooding.
However, significant wave overwash along south-facing shorelines will
be possible, especially near the times of high tide early Saturday and
Sunday mornings.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts
include:
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation
      at low-lying spots and poor drainage areas. Some streets and
      parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention
      ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some
      secondary road closures will be possible.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across the Florida
Keys.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
No mandatory evacuations are expected for this storm. However, Monroe
County Emergency Management advises residents and visitors in
campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, live-aboard
vessels, and mobile homes to prepare to seek shelter with friends or
family in a safe structure through the expected duration of Fred's
passage through the Florida Keys.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

Isolated tornadoes will be possible with this storm. Have multiple
ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness
- For Monroe County EM Evacuation Information, see
monroecountyem.com/897/Evacuation-information
- For Monroe County shelter information, see
monroecountyem.com/992/Shelters

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 5 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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