[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 130923
HLSKEY
FLZ076>078-131630-

Tropical Depression Fred Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL062021
523 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for the Florida Keys**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Monroe Lower Keys, Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe
      Upper Keys

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys,
      Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe Upper Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 360 miles east-southeast of Key West FL
    - 22.0N 76.7W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 AM EDT, Tropical Depression Fred has changed little in strength
overnight, and continues to move to the west-northwest at 10 mph. On
the forecast track, the center of Tropical Depression Fred will move
along or just north of eastern and central Cuba today and tonight, and
after a turn to the northwest, will be near the Florida Keys on
Saturday. Fred is expected to slowly intensify back to tropical storm
strength before reaching the Florida Keys. Weather conditions will
begin to deteriorate gradually with thundery squalls becoming more
frequent across the Florida Keys late this afternoon and evening.

The potential risk for multiple hazards remains essentially unchanged
for the Florida Keys, including flooding rainfall, tropical storm
force winds, especially in squalls, isolated tornadoes, and
treacherous marine conditions. Tropical storm conditions are most
likely to arrive Saturday morning, with conditions not likely to
improve until Saturday evening.

Heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches, may cause significant rainwater flooding. A Flood Watch is in
effect from this evening through late Saturday night. Heavy rainfall
will be exacerbated during the times of high tide.

A few tornadoes will be possible late tonight and Saturday.

At this time, there is little if any potential for coastal flooding.
However, significant wave overwash along south-facing shorelines will
be possible, especially near the times of high tide early Saturday and
Sunday mornings.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation
      at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
      streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and
      retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.
      Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across the Florida
Keys.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
No mandatory evacuations are expected for this storm. However, Monroe
County Emergency Management advises residents and visitors in
campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, live-aboard
vessels, and mobile homes to prepare to seek shelter with friends or
family in a safe structure through the expected duration of Fred's
passage through the Florida Keys.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
  monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 1200 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

CLR
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