[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Aug 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 18.9N 71.0W at 11/2100 UTC
or 70 nm WNW of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic moving WNW at
13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is mainly over Hispaniola from 17N
to 20N between 68W and 73W. On the forecast track, the center of
Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola for the next several
hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern
coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday. Fred is
expected to weaken to a depression tonight as it crosses
Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning
Thursday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 18N with axis near 37W,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to
15N between 36W and 42W. Environmental conditions are expected
to become gradually conducive for development of this system, and
a tropical depression could form by early next week while moving
generally westward across the tropical Atlantic. This system
could reach portions of the Leeward Islands by late Saturday.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 52W,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 02N to 13N
between 46W and 56W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean just to the south of
Fred with axis near 71W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is
supporting showers and thunderstorms over Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 13N32W to 07N51W. The
ITCZ begins at 07N51W and continues to 06N57W. For convection
information, see the tropical waves section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough supports heavy showers and isolated tstms
over the Louisiana adjacent waters while a low aloft supports
similar convection over the Bay of Campeche, including the
Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters. Otherwise, the SW extension of
the Atlantic ridge covers the basin and continue to support
gentle to moderate E to SE flow, except NE flow off the Yucatan
peninsula.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the
NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche tonight and Thu
night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak
surface ridge will prevail along 30N through Thu. Tropical Storm
Fred is near 18.9N 71.0W 1007 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt.
Fred is expected to move across the Straits of Florida as a
tropical storm by Fri night, enter the SE Gulf of Mexico on Sat,
and move NW along the far E Gulf through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Fred is near 18.9N 71.0W 1007 mb at 5
PM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola for the next
several hours and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. Fred is expected to weaken to
a depression tonight as it crosses Hispaniola. Please see the
Special Features section for further details on Tropical Storm
Fred.

Aside from Fred and scattered showers over the SW basin being
supported by the NE Pacific monsoon trough, moderate to fresh
trades cover the eastern portion of the basin and gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
most of the basin through the rest of the week. Fresh winds can
be expected in the Windward Passage through tonight. Fresh to
locally strong winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Fred is near 18.9N 71.0W 1007 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola for the next several
hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the
northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday. Fred is
expected to weaken to a depression tonight as it crosses
Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning
Thursday night. Please see Special Features section above for
more on Tropical Storm Fred.

Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high continue to be the main
feature N of 20N across the basin. With this, gentle to moderate
easterly winds are across the central and SW region while NE
winds of similar magnitude cover the NW Africa adjacent waters.
Aside from Fred, no much change is expected within the next
several days.

$$
Ramos
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