[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110940
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Aug 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 18.0N 68.2W at 11/0900 UTC
or 100 nm ESE of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic moving WNW at
14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm NW
and 120 nm SW semicircles of Fred. Fred will move into E
Hispaniola this morning, with the mountainous terrain expected to
weaken the system to a tropical depression this afternoon. Fred
is forecast to emerge off the NW coast of Hispaniola as a tropical
depression later tonight. The system is forecast to re- intensify
to tropical storm strength Thursday and continue on a WNW track
just north of Cuba Thu and Fri. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and the potential for mudslides across portions of
Hispaniola today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details on Fred.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31N from 18N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 08N to 11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46/47W from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 05N to 10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W south of TS Fred, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of
the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is over the NW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 11N23W to 12.5N31W to
11.5N41W. The ITCZ extends from 12N49W to 07N59W. Aside from
convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical
Waves sections, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 05N to 13N between 32W and 43W and from 05N to 10N between
48W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf. A surface trough
extends just west of the Yucatan peninsula. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted over the SW Gulf in the vicinity of the trough, as
well as the far SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted over the
NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range west of the Yucatan peninsula and over the fat SE
Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche tonight in association
with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge will
prevail along 30N through Thu. Tropical Storm Fred near 18.0N
68.2W 1009 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Fred is expected to move across the
Straits of Florida Fri night as a tropical storm, into the SE Gulf
of Mexico Sat, and move NW along the far E Gulf through the
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for further details on
Tropical Storm Fred.

Outside of Tropical Storm Fred, fresh to strong winds prevail over
the south central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south central
Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the south central
Caribbean will diminish today. Tropical Storm Fred near 18.0N
68.2W 1009 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Fred will reach E Hispaniola this
morning, move north of Hispaniola Wed night, and then move north
of Cuba Thu and Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical
Storm Fred.

Outside of Fred, high pressure prevail over the subtropical
waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds are N of 27N, with gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere N of 20N. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
N of 28N, and 5-7 ft elsewhere N of 20N. Over the deep tropics S
of 20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 10N, and light to
gentle winds prevail S of 10N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range N of
10N and 4-5 ft S of 10N.

For the forecast W of 65W, Atlc surface ridge associated with the
Bermuda- Azores high will persist with axis N of the area for the
next several days. Tropical Storm Fred near 18.0N 68.2W 1009 mb
at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt
gusts 45 kt. Fred will reach E Hispaniola this morning, move north
of Hispaniola Wed night as a tropical depression, and then re-
intensify to a tropical storm as the system continue west
northwestward to the north of Cuba Thu and Fri.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net