[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110604
TWDAT

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 17.4N
66.8W or 40 nm SSW of Ponce Puerto Rico moving WNW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb at 11/0300 UTC.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is concentrated in
the SW quadrant about 100 nm from the center. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, be near or over
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Gradual
strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. Some
weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola
on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 21N with axis near 30W,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 14N between 25W and 35W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 22N with axis near 44W,
moving estward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted mainly in the southern end of the wave from 04N-08N
between 41W-47W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 21N with axis near
83W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
15N to 22N between 79W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 11N32W to 07N41W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N47W to 07N59W. Aside from convection
described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves
sections, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N
between 37W and 41W and along the ITCZ from 04N-08N between 46W
to 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extending from the Atlantic covers the basin
which is providing light to gentle return flow and seas in the
1 to 3 ft range. Water vapor and microwave imagery show there
is plenty of moisture across the gulf, which along with middle
to upper level divergence support scattered showers and tstms
N of 23N. The diurnal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula extends
>From 23N87W to 18N91W with scattered showers and thunderstorms
In the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche.

Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each night through Wed night
in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface
ridge will prevail along 30N Tue through Thu. Recently upgraded
Tropical Storm Fred is expected to move across the Straits of
Florida Fri night as a tropical storm, into the SE Gulf of
Mexico Sat, and NW along the far E Gulf through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 17.4N
66.8W or 40 nm SSW of Ponce Puerto Rico moving WNW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb at 11/0300 UTC.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Please see the Special Features section for further details on
Tropical Storm Fred.

Outside of the Tropical Storm and tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is noted from Cabo Cruz to Isla de la
Juventud. ASCAT Data indicates Fresh to strong winds over the
south central Caribbean And in the Windward Passage, while light
to moderate trades are noted In the southeastern and western
Caribbean. Seas ranged between 2 to 3 Ft across the northwest, 3
to 6 ft south of the Tropical Storm Fred, and up to 8 ft in the
south central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean will
diminish early Wed. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fred near
17.4N 66.8W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt. Fred will
reach E Hispaniola Wed morning, move north of Hispaniola Wed
night, and then move north of Cuba Thu and Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to
locally fresh trades remain from 15N to 25N, with light to
gentle trades elsewhere in the discussion waters. Seas are in the
3-5 ft north of 22N and west of 70W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere
including over open waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, Atlc surface ridge associated with
the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis N of the area
for the next several days. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm
Fred near 17.4N 66.8W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt.
Fred will reach E Hispaniola Wed morning, move north of
Hispaniola Wed night, and continue west northwestward to the
north of Cuba Thu and Fri. Gradual strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to
become a tropical storm tonight. Some weakening is likely while
the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.

$$
Torres
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