[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Aug 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near 16.6N 64.8W at
10/1800 UTC or 130 nm SE of Ponce, Puerto Rico moving WNW at 16
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm N and
100 nm E, S, and W semicircles. Gradual strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to
become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some weakening is
likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in
the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late
Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the
eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico. For more details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml. Additional products
can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W from 21N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N to 14N between 25W and 32W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 22N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with the wave
at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed from 27N57W to 14N63W to
04N63W in E Venezuela. It is currently moving W at 10-15 kt.
In addition to the convection associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Six, scattered showers are noted nort of 24N within 100 nm
west of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed at 1500 UTC along 79W
from 21N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the NW Caribbean from 17N to 22N between
79W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 12N16W to 12N20W
to 13N30W to 10N46W. The ITCZ continues from 10N46W to 08N56W.
Aside from convection described above in the Special Features and
Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 42W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging prevails over the Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, a
surface trough extends along the coast of Mexico in the W Bay of
Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 19N to 21N
west of 95W. Scattered showers are noted in the central Gulf.
Light to gentle E to SE winds prevail over the basin with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each night through Wed
night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak
surface ridge will prevail along 30N Tue through Thu. Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six near 16.3N 63.8W 1012 mb at 11 AM EDT moving
WNW at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. This
system is expected to move across the Straits of Florida Fri night
as a tropical storm, then move into the SE Gulf of Mexico Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, which is currently located in the NE
Caribbean.

Outside of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, fresh to locally
strong trades prevail over the central Caribbean with mainly
moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft near the Leeward
Islands in the NE Caribbean, 2-4 ft near the Windward Islands in
the SE Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in
the W Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the central
Caribbean are expected to diminish by early Wed morning. Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or
over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday. Gradual
strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with
Hispaniola on Wednesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, which is currently located in the
NE Caribbean.

High pressure prevails across the tropical Atalntic. The latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to locally fresh trades from
15N to 25N, with light to gentle trades elsewhere in the
discussion waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft north of 22N and west
of 70W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere including over open waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-
Azores high will persist with axis N of the area for the next
several days. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to pass
near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today
and tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
Thursday. This system is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by
late Friday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system
interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.

$$
Mahoney
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