[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100942
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Aug 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near 15.7N 62.2W at
10/0900 UTC or 60 nm SW of Guadeloupe moving WNW at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm E and 75 nm W
semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
elsewhere from 12N to 21N between 58W and 66W. The system is
forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
beginning this afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern
Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and
potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the
eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. For more
details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Potential Tropical Cyclone Six NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W from 21N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 07N to 14N between 22W and 28W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W from 21N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
southern end of the wave, from 02N to 06N between 37W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 20N southward into
South America, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted where the wave intersects the
monsoon trough over the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 12N16W to 12N20W
to 13N30W to 10N46W. The ITCZ continues from 10N46W to 08N56W.
Aside from convection described above in the Special Features and
Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 42W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf. A surface trough
extends over the SW Gulf just west of the Yucatan peninsula. Fresh
to locally strong winds are found west of the trough, with
moderate to fresh winds east of the trough and over the far SE
Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted over the NE Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range
over the SW Gulf, 3-4 ft over the NE Gulf as well as the far SE
Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each night through Wed
night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak
surface ridge will prevail along 30N Tue through Thu. Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six is over the NE Caribbean near 15.7N 62.2W
1010 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds
30 kt gusts 40 kt. This system is expected to move across the
Straits of Florida Fri night as a tropical storm, then move into
the SE Gulf of Mexico Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six over the NE Caribbean.

Outside of Potential Tropical Cyclone six, fresh to strong winds
prevail over the south central Caribbean with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central
Caribbean, 1-3 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean will diminish tonight. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six
near 15.7N 62.2W 1010 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. This system is expected to
intensify to a tropical storm today while moving W-NW across the
NE Caribbean, then move across the Mona Passage and into
Hispaniola early Wed, and then continue offshore and parallel to
the N coast of Cuba Thu through Fri and across the Straits of
Florida and into the SE Gulf of Mexico Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, currently over the NE Caribbean.

High pressure prevails across the subtropical waters north of 20N
where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 2-4 ft
range west of 70W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Over the deep tropics
south of 20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, Atlc surface ridge associated with the
Bermuda- Azores high will persist with axis N of the area for the
next several days. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six near 15.7N
62.2W 1010 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. This system is expected to intensify to a
tropical storm today, then continue W-NW, move across the Mona
Passage and into Hispaniola early Wed where it will weaken to a
tropical depression. The disturbance will then continue offshore
and parallel to the N coast of Cuba Thu through Fri, when it will
re- intensify to a tropical storm, then will move across the
Straits of Florida and into the SE Gulf of Mexico Sat.

$$
AL
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