[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100555
TWDAT

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is near 15.5N 61.5W 1010 mb at 2
AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts
40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Satellite
imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
within 210 nm of the center in the northern semicircle and
within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. This system is
expected to move across the central Lesser Antilles early this
morning and intensify to a tropical storm, then continue W-NW
across the NE Caribbean today, across NE Hispaniola Wed, and
then continue offshore and parallel to the N coast of Cuba Thu
through Fri and across the Straits of Florida and into the SE
Gulf of Mexico Sat. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban
and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for
flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern
portions of Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
this afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday.
Tropical Storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti by late
Wednesday. Wave heights with Potential Tropical Cyclone-Six are
forecast to build to near 12 ft today. It has a high chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For more
details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Potential Tropical Cyclone Six NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from
21N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-13N between 18W-24W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W
from 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the southern end of the wave, from 02N-06N between 35W-
40W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 76W
from 20N inland into South America, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the northern part of
this wave over southeast Cuba and Jamaica and in the southern
end of the wave in western Colombia and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through Senegal near 12N16W to
14N30W to 10N46W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ begins and continues to 11N55W. Aside from convection
described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves
sections, scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen south of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 40W-55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near
28N87W. Ridging from this and the subtropical high dominates the
Gulf waters allowing for fairly tranquil conditions. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 24N to 29N and E of 84W. To
the southwest, the diurnal trough extends from 22N88W to 18N91W
enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
portion of the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula. Light
anticyclonic winds are observed in the NE Gulf near the high
center. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are found
elsewhere. Seas ranged from 3-4 ft in the NW Gulf, 1-3 ft in
the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each night through
Wed night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a
weak surface ridge will prevail along 30N Tue through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on newly
classified Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.

High pressure is present north of the area. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are over the far SW Caribbean near
the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Similar
activity is over the northwestern Caribbean. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are over the waters between the Windward
Passage, across southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Channel.
Fresh to locally strong trades are over the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the
basin, except over the northwestern Caribbean, where trades are
in the gentle to moderate speeds. Seas are 5-7 ft near the
Lesser Antilles, 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the
SW Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean will diminish Tue night. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six
near 15.1N 60.8W 1010 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. This system is
expected to move across the central Lesser Antilles tonight and
intensify to a tropical storm, then continue W-NW across the NE
Caribbean, move across the Mona Passage and into NE Hispaniola
early Wed, and then continue offshore and parallel to the N
coast of Cuba Thu through Fri and across the Straits of Florida
and into the SE Gulf of Mexico Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on newly
classified Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.

Three subtropical highs present. One of 1028 mb centered near
35N34W, the other 1028 mb centered near 32N48W and the other
of 1026 mb centered near 34N62W. This subtropical ridge dominates
the weather regime across the tropical Atlantic. Light to gentle
east to southeast winds remain over the waters north of 27N and
west of 67W, with moderate to locally fresh trades from 20N to
27N. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 22N and west of 65W, and generally
4-7 ft elsewhere in the discussion waters outside of the area
described in the Special Features section.

For the forecast W of 65W, surface ridge associated with the
Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis N of the area for the
next several days. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six near 15.1N
60.8W 1010 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. This system is
expected to move across the central Lesser Antilles tonight and
intensify to a tropical storm, then continue W-NW, move across
the Mona Passage and into NE Hispaniola early Wed, and then
continue offshore and parallel to the N coast of Cuba Thu
through Fri and across the Straits of Florida and into the SE
Gulf of Mexico Sat.

$$
Torres
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