[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly classified Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near
14.7N 60.1W at 10/0300 UTC or 78 nm ESE of Dominica and about
115 nm SE of Guadeloupe moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows that deep
convection of the scattered moderate to strong type intensity has
during the afternoon within 120 nm of the center in the northern
semicircle and within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
Its overall cloud pattern has become more symmetrical during the
past few hours as outer rain bands are just east of the Leeward
Islands. These bands consist of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 16N to 18N between 58W-61W. Potential
Cyclone Six is forecast to maintain its current motion during the
next few days. On the current forecast track, the Potential
Cyclone Six is expected to move through a portion of the
southern Leeward Islands later tonight, pass near or over the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tue and Tue night, and
near or over Hispaniola on Wed. Potential rainfall amounts of 2-4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected over the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. This rainfall
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and
potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. 3-6 inches of rainfall are expected over the Dominican
Republic and 1-3 inches over the northern Windward Islands.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
the Lesser Antilles later tonight, and are also possible within
the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
beginning Tue afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early
Wed. Wave heights with Potential Cyclone-Six are forecast to
build to near 12 ft on Tue. It has a high chance of becoming
a tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. For more
details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Potential Tropical Cyclone Six NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W
from 05N to 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from
10N to 14N.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W
from 03N to 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only small isolated
showers and thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm either side of
the wave axis from 03N to 09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
inland South America near 04N5W north-northeastward to 17N57W
and to 25N55W, It is moving westward at 13 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 16N to 19N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 73W
south of 20N to inland South America. It is moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern part
of this wave over northern Haiti and within 180 nm west of the
wave from 17N to 20N noted from 11N to 15N between 55W an 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through Mauritania near 20N16W to
13N30W to 10N46W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ begins and continues to 10N53W. Aside from convection
described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves
sections, scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to
10N between 47W-52W and from 04N to 07N between 41W-47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near
29N87W. Ridging from this and the subtropical high dominates the
Gulf waters allowing for fairly tranquil conditions. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 24N to 25N between 84W-90W.
Light anticyclonic winds are observed in the NE Gulf near the
high center. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are
found elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NW Gulf, 2-4
ft in the SW and central Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the E Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east winds will pulse off
the northwest Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each
night through Wed night in association with a diurnal trough.
Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge along 27N will dominate the Gulf
waters today, and drift northward to along 30N Tue through Thu.
Newly classified Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is located near
14.2N 59.2W 1010 mb at 2100 UTC moving WNW 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 30 kt gusts to 40 kt. This system is expected to
move across the central Lesser Antilles tonight and intensify to
a tropical storm, then continue west-northwest across the
northeastern Caribbean Tue, across northeastern Hispaniola early
Wed, and then continue offshore and parallel to the north coast
of Cuba Thu through Fri and across the Straits of Florida and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on newly
classified Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.

High pressure is present north of the area. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are over the far SW Caribbean near
the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Similar
activity is over the northwestern Caribbean. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are over the waters between Haiti and Jamaica and
between Jamaica and 80W. Fresh to locally strong trades are
over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades
are elsewhere over the basin, except over the northwestern
Caribbean, where trades are in the gentle to moderate speeds.
Seas are 5-7 ft near the Lesser Antilles, 4-6 ft in the central
Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the SW Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean tonight will give way to a developing Tropical Cyclone
approaching the Lesser Antilles tonight. Potential Tropical
Cyclone Six is located near 14.2N 59.2W 1010 mb at 2100 UTC
moving W-NW 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts to 40 kt.
This system is expected to move across the central Lesser
Antilles tonight and intensify to a tropical storm, then continue
W-NW, reaching near 16.8N 64.5W Tue afternoon, move across the
Mona Passage and into northeastern  Hispaniola early Wed, and
then continue offshore and parallel to the northern coast of Cuba
Thu through Fri and across the Straits of Florida and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on newly
classified Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.

Three subtropical highs present. One of 1027 mb centered near
34N44W, the other of 1029 mb centered near 36N35W and the other
of 1026 mb centered near 34N56W 1026 mb dominate the weather
regime across the tropical Atlantic. Light to gentle east to
southeast winds remain over the waters north of 23N and west of
57W, with moderate to locally fresh trades from 15N to 23N, and
gentle to moderate trades south of 15N across the basin. Seas are
3-5 ft north of 22N and west of 65W, and generally 4-7 ft
elsewhere in the discussion waters outside of the area described
in the Special Features section.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic surface ridge associated
with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis north of the
area for the next several days. Newly classified Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six is located near 14.2N 59.2W 1010 mb at 2100
UTC moving W-NW 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts to 40
kt. This system is expected to move across the central Lesser
Antilles tonight and intensify to a tropical storm, then continue
W-NW, move across the Mona Passage and into NE Hispaniola early
Wed, and then continue offshore and parallel to the northern
coast of Cuba Thu through Fri and across the Straits of Florida
and into the SE Gulf of Mexico Sat.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net