[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091158 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 9 2021

Updated to include the latest Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning
in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles
east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola
around the middle of this week.  Tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Interests in
those areas should monitor the progress of this system. This
system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours. Please refer to latest Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for the latest information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of
the wave axis from 18N to 21N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W south of 20N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N to 14N between 51W to 54W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W south of 21N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is over Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 20N16W to 12N31W
to low pres near 15N47W to 14N53W. Aside from convection
described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves
sections, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed from 09N to 17N and E of 21W to the coast of Africa ahead
of the next tropical wave about to move off the coast of western
Africa. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also
noted from 06N to 17N between 46W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered over the NE Gulf. A surface trough is just west of
the Yucatan peninsula. Light winds are noted over the NE Gulf in
the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are over
the NW Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds are over the southern
Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the SW Gulf as well as the
far NW Gulf. Elsewhere, seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each night through Tue
night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak
surface ridge along 27N will dominate the Gulf waters today, and
drift northward to along 29N-30N Tue through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the area. Fresh to strong winds
prevail over the south central Caribbean with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south
central Caribbean. Seas are 1-3 ft over the NW Caribbean, except
over the Gulf of Honduras where seas are in the 3-5 ft range.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse over the
south- central Caribbean tonight and Tue night. Otherwise
moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across all but NW
portions this evening through early Wed. A strong tropical wave
with very active weather is expected to move across the tropical
Atlantic waters Mon and Mon night, across the NE Caribbean and
adjacent Atlantic waters Tue and Tue night, and reach the
central Caribbean midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the subtropical waters north of 20N,
anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 37N35W. Light to
gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 25N and west of 60W,
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere N of 20N. Seas are in the
2-4 ft range N of 26N and W of 60W as well as west of the Bahamas.
Elsewhere N of 20N, seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

In the deep tropical, two low pressure areas are being monitored
for potential tropical cyclone development. One low near 13N56W
has a medium probability for development within the next 48 hours
and is discussed further in the Special Features section above.
Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted within 180 NM
north of the low. The other low is centered near 15N47W. Fresh to
locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft are noted within 90 NM north
of the low. Development of this low has become less likely and is
in the low category within the next 48 hours. Please see the
latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlc surface ridge associated with
the Bermuda- Azores high will persist with axis N of the area for
the next several days. A strong tropical wave with very active
weather is expected to move across the SE Atlantic waters tonight,
across the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters Tue and Tue
night, and reach the SE Bahamas Wed night.

$$
AL/Mahoney
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