[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1010 mb is about 350 nm east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands. Satellite imagery shows disorganized scattered
moderate convection from 08N to 14N between 52W-60W. The latest
ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh to strong northeast winds
north of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form while the low moves WNW at about
15 kt.  The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Mon, and then move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Tue, and be near Hispaniola around
the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition,
heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico. Interest in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
hurricanes.gov for the latest information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from
21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. A surface low pressure is
noted near 12N32W. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of
the low from 09N-13N Between 31W-32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of
20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 04N-14N between 49W to 52W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W, south
of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
over Hispaniola and in the Mona Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 20N16W
southwest to a 1012 mb low pressure near 12N32W to a second low
near 14N45W to 15N52W. Aside from convection described above in
the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered
moderate convection is observed south of the monsoon trough
along the coast of Africa from 09N to 18N and E of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a 1019 mb high
pressure centered near 27N86W. This is keeping the region under
weak pressure gradient with mostly fair weather across the basin.
There are some scattered showers and thunderstorms noted E of 83W
along the Florida coast, and in the northwestern section of the
Yucatan Peninsula south of 21N near the diurnal thermal trough
over the region. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail
elsewhere with light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas
ranging from 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through
Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a
weak surface ridge along 27N will dominate the Gulf waters over
the next few days and drift northward to along 29N-30N Tue
through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection mentioned above in the tropical wave
Section, scattered moderate convection is noted in southeast
Cuba from Cabo Cruz to Isla de la Juventud and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted
along the coast of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua due to the
proximity of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

ASCAT data showed fresh to locally strong winds are over the
south-central Caribbean, especially within 160 nm of the coast
of NW Colombia. Seas in the area are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted in the north-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras, while light to gentle trades prevail in the NW and SE
Caribbean. Seas of 4-6 ft are prevalent in the north-central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, while 2-4 ft seas are found
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean tonight will diminish significantly on Mon.
Otherwise moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across all
but NW portions Mon evening through early Wed. A strong tropical
wave with very active weather is expected to move across the
tropical Atlantic waters Mon and Mon night, across the NE
Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters Tue and Tue night, and
reach the central Caribbean midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive 1030 mb Azores high pressure is centered near
38N36W. This is allowing for tranquil weather conditions outside
of the deep tropics. The exception is near NE Florida coast with
upper trough Extending southwest across the Florida Peninsula
into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted in the vicinity of this trough. Farther east, a weak
surface trough extends from near 31N69W to 27N70W and another
surface trough extends from near 31N58W to 26N63W. Both systems
are only producing shallow showers, mainly east of the trough
axis. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are found W of 50W
and N of 30N, and seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds
prevail E of 50W and N of 20N, and seas of 6-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlc surface ridge associated
with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis N of the
area for the next several days. A strong tropical wave with very
active weather is expected to move across the SE Atlantic waters
Mon night, across the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters
Tue and Tue night, and reach the SE Bahamas Wed night.

$$
Torres
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