[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Aug 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure system is located well east of the Lesser
Antilles, near 12N53W. The disturbance is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms and a recent scatterometer satellite
pass show fresh to strong NE winds north of the center.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable to support
some gradual development over the next few days, and this system
could become a tropical depression while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and then move
near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and near
Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Interests in those
areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could
bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that
area. There is a medium chance of development in the next 5 days.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov
for the latest information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south of 20N,
and it is moving to the W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is devoid of
any significant convection at this time.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W, south of
21N, and it is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is noted in association with this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 65W, south of 21N,
and it is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass show a sharp curvature in association with this
wave, and also fresh to locally strong trade winds from 16N to
19N and between 60W and 66W. Scattered moderate convection is
affecting the E Caribbean and Lesser Antilles from 11N to 20N and
between 59W and 66W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
13N17W to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 15N27W to
11N33W to a 1010 mb low pressure center near 14N43W to a 1009 mb
low pressure center near 12N53W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough from
07N to 13N between 32W and 37W, and from 09N to 15N between 43W
and 58W.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico remains in the SW flank of the subtropical
ridge positioned near the Azores. This keeps the region in an
environment of a relatively weak pressure gradient. A few showers
are affecting an area in the W Bay of Campeche from 20N to 24N
and between 94W and 97W, while fairly tranquil weather conditions
prevail in the rest of the basin. Moderate to occasionally fresh
SE-S breezes are found in the Bay of Campeche and W Gulf of
Mexico, with 3-4 ft seas. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and
seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through
Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a
weak surface ridge along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters
over the next several days producing gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
150 nm of the coasts of SE Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. This
is in association with the East Pacific monsoon trough that
crosses into the Caribbean Sea through S Costa Rica and W Panama.
The rest of the basin enjoys tranquil weather conditions.

Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh to locally strong
winds are over the south-central Caribbean, especially within 100
nm of the coast of NW Colombia. Seas in the area are 6-8 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the north-central Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras, while light to gentle trades prevail in the
NW and SE Caribbean. Seas of 4-6 ft are prevalent in the north-
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, while 2-4 ft seas are
found elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue
across the south-central Caribbean through tonight, then diminish
significantly across most of the basin through Mon. Fresh NE winds
are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours
tonight. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through
Tue before fresh winds return to the south-central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive 1030 mb Azores high pressure system is the dominant
weather feature in the tropical Atlantic, allowing for fairly
tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. An
exception to the tranquil weather can be found off the NE Florida
coast and N of the NW Bahamas due to a trough that extends from
33N77W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
vicinity of this trough. Farther east, a weak surface trough
extends from 30N69W to 26N71W and another surface trough extends
from 31N58W to 25N62W. Both systems are only producing shallow
showers, mainly east of the trough axis. Also, both troughs were
captured by the recent scatterometer pass, showing broad curvature
with gentle winds. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
found W of 50W and N of 20N, and seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh
NE-E winds prevail E of 50W and N of 20N, and seas of 6-8 ft.
However, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 7-9 ft can be found
off the coast of Morocco.

Over the deep tropics south of 20N, the monsoon trough extends
across the waters from the coast of Africa to near 55W. Moderate
to fresh tradewinds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with
gentle to moderate SW to W monsoon flow south of the monsoon
trough. Three low pressure centers are embedded within the
monsoon trough. These lows are being monitored for potential
tropical cyclone development. Please, see the latest Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage
tonight. Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge associated with the
Bermuda- Azores high will persist with axis well N of the area for
the next several days. A tropical wave with active weather is
expected to enter the SE waters Mon night, move across the NE
Carib and adjacent Atlc waters Tue night through Wed, and reach
the SE Bahamas early Thu.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net