[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Aug 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 18N,
and it is moving to the W at 10 to 15 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 12N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 15N and between 22W and 32W.

A second Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of
22N, and it is moving W at around 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted in association with this wave.

A third Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W, south of
21N and it is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass show a broad curvature in association with this
wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 18N and
between 55W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W, south of 17N
and it is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Caribbean Sea,
within 150 nm of the coasts of NW Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and
SE Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the cost of N Mauritania near
21N17W to a low pressure system near 12N25W to another low
pressure system near 13N39W to 08N55W. Aside from convection
noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection
is noted within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough from
06N to 14N and between 38W and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The influence of the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
extends to the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a weak pressure
gradient. As of 1500 UTC, a weak surface trough was noted along
95W from 18N to 23N. The trough is enhancing the formation of scattered
moderate convection in the W Bay of Campeche from 19N to 21W and
94W to the coast of Veracruz. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly
tranquil weather conditions. South of 24N, gentle to moderate
E-SE breezes and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent. Light to gentle S-SW
breezes and 1-2 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through
Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak
surface ridge along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure system
near the Azores and lower pressure over South America maintains an
area of fresh to locally strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean Sea, as shown by recent scatterometer satellite data.
Seas in the region are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are
prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the
north-central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Except for the
convection affecting the SW Caribbean as discussed in the tropical
wave section, tranquil weather conditions prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue
across the south-central Caribbean through tonight, strongest near
the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds will then
diminish significantly across most of the basin Sun through Mon.
Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras late this
afternoon through the nighttime hours. Fresh NE winds are expected
in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend.
Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive 1030 mb high pressure system near the Azores
dominates the tropical Atlantic. A surface trough extends from
30N55W to 21N59W. The trough is not producing any significant
convection at this time. Another surface trough is analyzed
extending from 25N66W to 30N69W, and it is also devoid of deep
convection. The broad surface curvatures of these systems are
quite evident in the recent scatterometer satellite pass. Tranquil
weather conditions prevail north of 20N. Gentle to moderate
easterly breezes can be found W of 50N and north of 22N, with seas
of 3-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes prevail in
the rest of the basin, with seas of 5-7 ft.

Over the deep tropics south of 20N, the monsoon trough extends
across the waters from the coast of Africa to near 55W. Two low
pressure centers are embedded within this active monsoon trough,
as described in the monsoon trough section. The National Hurricane
Center is monitoring these disturbances for potential tropical
cyclone development. Please, see the latest Atlantic Tropical
Weather Outlook for more information.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola,
including the approaches to the Windward Passage, at night
through the weekend. Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge
associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis
well N of the area for the next several days. A tropical wave
with active weather is expected to enter the SE waters Mon night,
move across the NE Carib and adjacent Atlc waters Tue night, and
reach the SE Bahamas late Wed.

$$
DELGADO
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