[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a
medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W from 18N southward, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 13W and 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted where the wave intersects the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W/52W, from 18N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 51W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. No significant deep convection is
noted with the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 80W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 12N22W to 13N34W to
08N51W. Aside convection noted within the tropical waves section,
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to
15N between 20W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 03N to 12N between 35W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through NE Florida, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds are across the
northern Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds across the southern
Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the far NE Gulf as well as
to the west of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, seas are in the
1-3 ft range.

The front will weaken today while lifting northward, and
dissipate tonight just north of the area. Moderate to fresh E
winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of
Campeche every night through Tue night in association with a
diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf
waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
range over the south central Caribbean, 5-6 ft over the north
central Caribbean, and 3-4 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through Sat night near the coast of NE Colombia
and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras
from late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each day through
Sat night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage
during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades
will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails over the subtropical waters north of 20N,
anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure centered near 36N39W.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across these
waters. Over the deep tropics south of 20N, the monsoon trough
extends across the waters east of 51W. Moderate to locally fresh
NE tradewinds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to
moderate SW to W monsoon flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas
over the deep tropics are in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, at
night through the weekend. Elsewhere, a surface ridge associated
with the Bermuda- Azores high will persist for the next several
days.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net