[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Aug 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Two tropical waves were in the map
analysis at 04/1800 UTC. The tropical wave that was more to the
west has become the comparatively more prominent. An earlier low
pressure center has weakened and dissipated. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 10N to 13N
between 28W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 14N between
40W and 50W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are just to the east of
Martinique. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to
14N between 50W and 56W. It is more probable that this
precipitation may be related to the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving
through the area of an upper level trough whose southernmost point
is in Panama.

A tropical wave is in inland, moving away from the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, along 96W/97W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is in Mexico, from 90 nm to 320 nm to the west of the
tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, from 140 nm to 340 nm
to the east of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 16N23W, to 12N30W, 10N46W, to 10N54W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is in inland areas, and within 300
nm of the coast of Africa from 08N to 16N. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 08N between Africa and
30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, to NE
Florida near 30N81W. The front becomes stationary, from 30N81W, to
a 1014 mb low pressure center that is in south central Alabama.
The stationary front continues from the 1014 mb low pressure
center, to 28N90W, beyond 28N along the Texas Gulf coast, more
inland. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 24N northward from 92W eastward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, from the Deep South of Texas, to the Yucatan Peninsula. An
upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the northern coastal
plains of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 45 nm of the coast of Mexico
from 20N to 22N.

A frontal boundary extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The front will weaken on Friday, as it moves northward. Scattered
rainshowers and thunderstorms will continue in the northern half
of the Gulf of Mexico through Friday. Moderate SW to W winds will
prevail to the south of the front in the northeastern Gulf through
tonight. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Mon night
in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere south of the
front, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the
next several days, producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 31N71W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 23N75W just to the south of the central Bahamas, to
Panama along 78W/79W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 420 nm on either side of the upper level trough.

Deep layer moisture is moving across Puerto Rico. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate is within 125 nm to the
south of Puerto Rico, and within 150 nm to the north of Puerto
Rico, between 64W and 70W. It is possible, also, that some of the
nearby precipitation may be associated with the 31N71W-to-Panama
upper level trough.

Fresh trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea will
increase slightly, pulsing from fresh to strong through Friday
night near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh
east winds in the Gulf of Honduras from late afternoon through
the nighttime hours, each day through at least Fri night. Fresh NE
winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening
hours, Fri evening through Sun evening. Gentle to moderate trades
will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 32N48W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N
northward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 210 nm of the upper level cyclonic circulation center.

An upper level trough passes through 31N71W, to 23N75W just to
the south of the central Bahamas, to Panama along 78W/79W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 420
nm on either side of the upper level trough.

Broad easterly surface wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, on the
southern side of large-scale anticyclonic wind flow, that covers
the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, away from the tropical
waves. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 36N54W. A 1033 mb
high pressure center is near 37N40W.

A cold front extends across the NW Atlantic Ocean. The front will
become stationary tonight, then move northward on Friday. Strong
southwest winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue just east of the front offshore NE Florida through
tonight, with fresh continuing into Thu morning. Fresh winds will
pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the
Windward Passage, Thu night and Fri night. Elsewhere, a surface
ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist for the
next several days.

$$
mt/era
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