[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Aug 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 23N southward and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 12N to 17N between the African coast and 22W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 17N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 06N to 09N between 31W and 41W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 18N southward
and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 05N to
08N between 44W and 49W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 15N southward across N
Venezuela, and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring across N Venezuela and
Guyana, and adjacent waters.

The Caribbean tropical wave previously located near 86W across
Honduras and Nicaragua has moved W over SE Mexico, Guatemala and
the E Pacific. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms linger
across the waters N of Honduras. This wave will be mentioned in
the Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion from this point forward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across the Mauritania-Senegal border near
17N17W through a low pressure system at 13N24W to 07N48W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is evident near the low
from 10N to 15N between 23W and 31W. No segments of the ITCZ are
analyzed at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough along 29N, S of a frontal boundary across the
Gulf States is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the N Gulf, and the Big Band area of Florida. Locally
moderate to fresh winds and seas up to 4 ft are near stronger
thunderstorms. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending west-
southwestward across the central Gulf is supporting light to
gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will remain nearly
stationary along the northern Gulf Coast, or over the northern
Gulf, through Fri. Expect scattered thunderstorms to continue over
the northern Gulf of Mexico this week, near and just south of the
front. Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds will prevail
south of the front in the northeastern and north-central Gulf
through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse
off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night
through Sat night, in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere
south of the front, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over
the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough is producing
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW corner
of the Caribbean Basin, including the coast of Nicaragua, Panama,
Costa Rica and NW Colombia. An upper-level low just NE of Cuba
near 23N75W is inducing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near Jamaica, Hispaniola and E Cuba. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for information on additional
convection in the Caribbean Basin.

Tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressure over N Colombia and Venezuela is creating moderate to
fresh with locally strong trade winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft over
the S central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high and associated Atlantic ridge
combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to locally
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the
remainder of the week. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight and again by Fri night. Gentle to
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms N of E Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands.
Convergent SE winds S of a frontal boundary over the Georgia-S
Carolina coast are coupling with divergent winds aloft to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms near and E of the Georgia and
Florida coast, and over the NW Bahamas. Locally moderate to fresh
winds and seas up to 5 ft are near heavier showers and strong
thunderstorms. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections above for additional convection across the Atlantic
Basin.

The Atlantic ridge axis extends west-southwestward from the 1031
mb Azores high across Bermuda to Florida. Light to gentle winds
and seas at 3 to 4 ft are present near these features N of 24N
between 47W and just E of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found from 10N to 24N between 47W
and the Lesser Antilles. Similar winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft are
evident N of 9N between the African coast and 47W. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh S to SW winds, and seas at 6 to 9 ft
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, the surface ridge associated with the
Bermuda-Azores high extends from 31N65W to near Havana Cuba. The
ridge will persist over the next several days. A stationary front
will linger along the U.S. East Coast for the rest of the week.
This will cause fresh southerly winds to continue off the NE
Florida coast through Thu, locally strong this afternoon through
tonight, along with showers and thunderstorms. Fresh winds will
pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the
Windward Passage, through Thu and increase to fresh to strong by
Thu night.

$$

Chan
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