[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Aug 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 23N
southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from
11N to 15N between 19W and 21W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 33W from 18N
southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 32W and 34W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 46W from 18N
southward, moving W around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is associated with this wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65W from 15N
southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection
is associated with this wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W from 20N southward, moving
W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of
Honduras, but most of the convection associated with this wave is
in the Eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Mauritania and
Senegal near 16N16W to 12N25W to 09N33W. A surface trough is
analyzed from 09N33W to 07N42W. Scatterometer data shows fresh W
to SW winds south of the trough axis and monsoon trough from 05N
to 08N between 23W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon trough and trough from 03N to 18N and E of 42W. No
segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across most of the Gulf. To the north, a
slow moving front is approaching the northern Gulf coast. A
trough is analyzed in the north-central Gulf from 30N85W to
30N90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed across the northern Gulf from the middle Texas coast to
central Florida, N of 26N between 83W and 97W. A trough extends in
the eastern Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 19N92W. Isolated
thunderstorms are around the extreme southern Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds are noted in the
northern Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas range 2
to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over
the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate
to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan
peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Sat night.
A stationary front over the northern Gulf will continue to linger
across this area through Fri. Expect moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds south of the front in the northern Gulf through
Wed along with showers and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the
SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough, S of 12N between 76W and
83W. Scattered moderate convection is also along the coast of
Honduras and Nicaragua from 13N to 17N between 82W and 86W.
Isolated thunderstorms are moving across the adjacent waters of
Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba, N of 18N between 73W and 82W. Fresh winds
are prevailing in the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong winds over the
south- central Caribbean through the remainder of the week. Gentle
to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong
E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again by Fri
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge axis extends west-southwestward from the
1030 mb high near the Azores to Florida. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted off the Florida coast and in
the northern Bahamas, N of 25N and W of 27W. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds prevail across this area with seas 2 to 4 ft.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, quiescent conditions are noted with the
subtropical ridge dominating the basin. Moderate to locally fresh
trades prevail east of 45W with gentle to moderate trades west of
45W. Seas range 4 to 7 ft, with an area of 8-10 ft seas in NE to
E swell is noted from 16N to 25N and E of 42W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate
the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh winds will
pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward
Passage, through Thu and increase fresh to strong by Fri. A
stationary front will linger along the U.S. East Coast for the
rest of the week. This will cause moderate to fresh southerly
winds to continue off the NE Florida coast through Thu along with
showers and thunderstorms.

$$
AReinhart
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