[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is along 18W from 23N
southward. Scattered showers are from 11N to 17N east of 20W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 17N southward, moving
W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N
between 28W and 38W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W from 18N southward, moving
W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W from 15N southward into
Venezuela, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time in the E Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted
over SE Venezuela.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 20N southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua, moving W at approximately 10 kt.
The convection associated with this wave is located in the
Eastern Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Senegal and
Mauritania near 16N16W to 09N32W. A surface trough is then
analyzed from 09N32W to 07N42W, where NE winds turn cyclonically
to the W. Scatterometer data shows fresh W to SW winds south of
the trough axis and monsoon trough from 05N to 08N between 23W and
38W. In addition to the convection described in the tropical
waves section, an area of scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon trough from 09N to 13N between 24W and 28W. No
segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a diurnal surface trough is analyzed along the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, from 21N90W to 19N92W.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds were detected near the trough
axis by ASCAT. Also at 0300 UTC, a pre-frontal trough is analyzed
along the NE Gulf Coast from 31N84W to 30N89W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over the Florida Panhandle and up to 60 nm
off the FL coast between 82W and 86W. Elsewhere in the basin, the
subtropical ridge axis extends through the central Gulf and
supports light to gentle anticyclonic flow. Seas are 1-3 ft across
the basin, except 2-4 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over
the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate
to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan
peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Sat night.
A frontal boundary, currently located over the northern Gulf
states, will slowly move southward over the northern Gulf of
Mexico through Fri. Expect moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds south of the front in the northern Gulf with showers and
thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE winds in
the Windward Passage with 4-6 ft seas. Additionally, fresh to
locally strong trades are observed in the central Caribbean, from
12N to 15N between 72W and 75W. Moderate trades prevail in the
remainder of the central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades in
the eastern and western Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft accompany the
area of strongest winds in the central Caribbean, with 3-6 ft seas
analyzed elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to locally strong
winds over the south-central Caribbean for the remainder of the
week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Expect
fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night
and again by Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge axis extends west-southwestward from the
1033 mb high across Bermuda to Florida. In the W Atlantic, gentle
to moderate trades veer to the SW, increasing to locally fresh
speeds north of 28N west of 78W. In the E Atlantic, Strong NE
winds were detected between the Canary Islands. Elsewhere in the
tropical Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail east
of 45W with gentle to moderate trades west of 45W. An area of 8-10
ft seas in NE to E swell is within 15N35W TO 18N40W TO 27N39W TO
28N35W TO 15N35W. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 70W, and 4-7 ft in the
remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate
the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches
to the Windward Passage through Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead of a frontal
boundary through Thu along with showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Mahoney
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