[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022239
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 18N southward and
moving W near 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 05N to 12N between 22W and 33W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 19N southward
and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present south of 07N and E of 42W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W from 13N
southwestward across NW Guyana, and moving W near 20 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 06N to 10N
between 52W and 59W, N of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana.
This wave will reach the Windward Islands this evening and
slightly increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 84 from 20N southward across E
Honduras and Nicaragua to Costa Rica, and moving W near 10 kt.
Scattered thunderstorms are evident W of the Cayman Islands and
across E Honduras and Nicaragua. Enhanced by the eastern end of
the E Pacific monsoon trough, numerous moderate to strong
convection is flaring up across the SW corner of the Caribbean
Basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends through a low-pressure system centered
along the Senegal coast near 13N17W to 09N30W to 07N44W. Numerous
moderate convection is seen near the low and monsoon trough from
11N to 18N between the African coast and 20W. Scattered moderate
convection is found farther W along the monsoon trough from 04N
to 12N between 33W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent surface winds S of a cold front across the Gulf States
are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger scattered
showers and thunderstorms from the N central Gulf to the Big
Band area of Florida. Locally moderate to fresh winds and seas
up to 4 ft are near these showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, a
surface ridge associated with a 1019 mb high over the E central
Gulf at 24N86W is maintaining light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 3 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over
the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds.
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the
Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through
Sat night. A frontal boundary, currently located over the
northern Gulf states, will slowly move southward over the
northern Gulf of Mexico through Thu. Expect moderate to locally
fresh southerly winds south of the front in the northern Gulf
with showers and thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional
information in relation to the convection.

Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressure over N Colombia and Venezuela is creating fresh to
strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft over the S central basin.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are occurring
across the N central and SW basin. Gentle to moderate trades and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong winds over
the south-central Caribbean the remainder of the week. Gentle
to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Expect fresh to
strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night, and
again Fri and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic ridge extends west-southwestward from the 1032 mb
Azores high across Bermuda to Florida. An elongated upper-level
low is just E of the Bahamas near 26N74W. Convergent SE to S
winds along the ridge axis are interacting with the upper low to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over SE Florida, the
NW Bahamas and off the N Florida and Georgia coast. Moderate to
locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are near these showers
and thunderstorms. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection across the
Atlantic Basin.

Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft related to the
Atlantic ridge can be found N of 24N between 35W and just E of
the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 7 to 10 ft are
present N of 14N between 35W E to the African coast. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present from 10N to 24N
between 43W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate S to SW
winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the
Forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches
to the Windward Passage through Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead of a frontal
boundary through Tue.

$$ Torres
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