[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tight gradient between the Atlantic High and lower pressure
across N Africa has been producing gale winds near the Canary
Islands and Agadir, and W of the coast of W Sahara and Morocco.
A Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France for the nearby marine
areas remains in effect through at least 02/0300 UTC. Expect N
to NE winds of Force 8 on the Beaufort Scale with rough seas.
Please see the High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at
gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 18N
southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 05N to 11N between 18W and 26W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 19N southward
and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 04N to 08N between 30W and 37W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 13N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
inland and near the coast of French Guiana and Suriname.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 19N southward across
Panama to the Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 15 kt. Most of the
moderate to strong convection associated with this tropical wave
is along Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N and E across
Jamaica.

A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche near 94W, southward
across SE Mexico to the Pacific Ocean and moving W near 15 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the bay.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N16W to
09N33W to 08N43W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N43W to 06N51W,
just N of the French Guiana-Brazil border. Aside to the convection
mentioned with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is present about 90 nm to the south of the boundary.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches west-southwestward from Georgia across
the Florida Panhandle to near New Orleans. Convergent surface
winds near and W of this feature are triggering scattered
showers and thunderstorms from Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle and the adjacent waters. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for additional convection. Otherwise, a 1019 mb
high over the W central Gulf near 26N93W and associated surface
ridge dominate the Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 3 ft.

For the forecast, A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the
Next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche every night through Thu night. A cold
front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico late Mon
into Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along
the frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over the central basin from 14N to 15N between 70W
and 73W. Otherwise, tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic
High and lower pressure across Colombia is creating fresh to
strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft over the S central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
found over the N central basin. Mainly moderate trades and seas
of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Mon morning with
seas building to 10 or 11 ft. Then, fresh to locally strong winds
will prevail the remainder of the week. A tropical wave moving
into the western Caribbean will support some shower and
thunderstorm activity tonight and Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning near the Canary Islands. For information on
convection across the Atlantic Basin, refer to the Tropical
Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections.

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores
high across Bermuda to Florida. This feature support mostly light
to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft N of 20N between 39W and
the Bahamas, and also from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles. A surface trough 29N57W to 20N59W with a few showers in
the vicinity. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
present N of 20N between 20W and 29W. Strong to gale winds and
seas of 9 to 11 ft are seen N of 27N between the NW African coast
and 15W. Gentle to moderate S to WSW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft
prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate
the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including
approaches to the Windward Passage through Fri. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead
of a frontal boundary through Tue.

$$

Torres
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