[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N13W to
05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 02N30W to 04N38W to
01N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N-04N between 09W-18W, from 00N-05N between 21W-38W, and
from 03N-08N between 40W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean across central
Florida to central Louisiana. An 1005 mb area of low pressure is
analyzed near Tampico, Mexico. A stationary front extends from
northeast Texas near 33N95W to 27N98W with three weak areas of low
pressure embedded along the front. Moderate to fresh SE flow
dominates the basin, locally strong near 22N94W. Seas are in the
3-5 ft range east of 90W, and in the 5-7 ft range west of 90W.
While no deep convection is noted across the basin, areas of smoke
with the potential for reduced visibilities could be seen from
the west central Gulf to the central Gulf. This smoke continues to
be generated by agricultural fires in southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the front over Texas will begin to progress
eastward as a cold front, moving off the Texas coast tonight. The
front will reach from northern Florida to the western Bay of
Campeche Fri night, then linger over the basin through the
weekend. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the W Gulf from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the basin and weak low pressure over
northern South America is supporting gentle to moderate trade
winds across most of the Caribbean Sea, except locally fresh north
of the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola. Seas are in the
2-4 ft range in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. An
area of active convection continues over northern Colombia and
Venezuela, with widespread shower activity and a few embedded
thunderstorms also noted extending from northeast of Venezuela
from the A-B-C Islands across all of the Lesser Antilles south of
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Additional isolated showers and
thunderstorms developed during the afternoon over interior
sections of the Greater Antilles with daytime heating.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E-SE winds are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras through the next couple of nights as a frontal
boundary lingers over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds
will continue elsewhere across the basin through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure centered near 31N59W supports moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across the waters south of 24N as well
as north of 24N and west of 77W, and gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds north of 25N and west of 65W. Seas are in the
2-4 ft range north of 27N and west of 65W, and 4-7 ft south of 27N
and west of 65W. A trough extends from 31N49W to 25N60W.
Isolated showers are possible near the trough. To the east, an
1011 mb low pressure area is centered near the Cabo Verde Islands
with a trailing trough reaching through 22N26W to 26N38W. Light
and variable winds dominate the waters north of 22N and east of
65W, with moderate trades south of 22N and east of 65W. Seas are
in the 4-6 ft range across the open waters of the tropical central
and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast, the next cold front will enter the northern
waters Fri/Sat, then linger weaken and shift east of the forecast
area on Sun. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft are
expected in the vicinity of the front.

$$
Lewitsky
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