[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N30W to
03N44W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N-05N between 19W-29W, and from 00N-04N
between 29W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N-10N between 35W-39W, and from 01N-07N between 39W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over coastal Georgia with a ridge axis
extending westward just inland of the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to fresh SE flow and seas in the 3-5 ft range dominate
the waters east of 90W, with fresh to locally strong SE-S flow and
seas in the 5-8 ft range west of 90W. A large area of haze and
some smoke continues in the southwest and west-central Gulf due
to agricultural fires in southern Mexico. In the near coastal
waters of the southwest gulf, low-level visibility may be reduced
at times due to the smoke.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds and building
over the western Gulf will continue through tonight as low
pressure deepens over southwestern Texas. The associated cold
front will move to just offshore the Texas coast Thu evening, and
slowly move across the NW Gulf through Fri. It will reach from
west-central Florida to the central Gulf and to the Bay of
Campeche by early Sat and become stationary. The front will lift
back to the north as a warm front through Sun, except over the
western Gulf it will weaken and dissipate by late Sun. Fresh to
strong northerly winds surge southward behind the front W of 96W
and S of 25N Fri and Fri night. The high pressure will remain in
place Mon and Mon night. Southerly flow will increase over the far
western Gulf Sun through Mon night. Areas of smoke over the SW
Gulf are due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico. These
conditions are expected to continue through at least the end of
the week, while hazy conditions will remain over the west-central
Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Visibility may be reduced in the
southwest Gulf, especially near the coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is north of the basin near Bermuda with mainly
moderate to locally fresh trades across the waters, except fresh
to strong near the Windward Passage due to a locally tight
pressure gradient. Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Caribbean,
4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the western
Caribbean. An area of active convection prevails over northern
Colombia and Venezuela, with a few showers and thunderstorms also
noted near the A-B-C Islands and southern Windward Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night as a cold front
moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will
continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun, then increase to
fresh speeds late Sun through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic, anchored by a
1024 mb high centered just W-NW of Bermuda. A dissipating
stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 32N51W
to 20N66W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
within 60-120 nm on either side of the front, mainly south of 23N
and extending across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted west of the front,
except gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 27N. Seas are
4-7 ft west of the front and south of 27N, and 3-5 ft north of
27N. Low pressure of 1011 mb is over the eastern Atlantic near
30N25W with a trailing trough to 22N33W. Scattered showers are
noted north of 22N and east of the front to 20W. Broad ridging
prevails across the rest of the central and eastern tropical
Atlantic, with moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N, and
gentle to moderate winds north of 20N. Seas are in the 4-7 ft
range across these same areas.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the far southeastern
waters will completely dissipate through Fri. Relatively weak
high pressure over the area will change little through the period.
Southerly winds will begin to increase over the northwest waters
late Thu in advance of an approaching cold front. This cold front
is expected to move over that part of the area late Fri into Sat,
and across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through Sun night as
it weakens. High pressure will build over the area in the wake of
this front through Mon night.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net