[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward
to 04N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W and to the coast of Brazil
near 02N50W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection that is well removed from the trough is noted from
the equator north to 04N and between 08W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21Z, a dissipating stationary front extends from the
Florida Keys northwestward to 26N90W. No significant precipitation
is observed over the basin due to subsidence and associated
sinking air from a mid-level ridge over the area. Latest ASCAT
data shows rather gentle east-southeast winds south of the front
and east of 88W, with moderate east winds north of the front.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate east to southeast winds continue
across the basin, with some locally fresh speeds off the coast of
southern Texas. Seas are 3-5 ft over the west- central Gulf,
with 2-3 ft seas elsewhere. Smoke from ongoing agricultural and
forest fires over Mexico and Guatemala is spreading across
portions of the southwest Gulf, mainly south of 26N and west of
90W. It is limiting visibility in some areas of the southwest
Gulf per latest nearby surface observations.

For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to dissipate
through tonight. Fresh to strong southeast winds are expected
across the western Gulf Tue night through Thu morning ahead of
the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters late on
Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front over Veracruz
adjacent waters and the Bay of Campeche on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging continues to dominate the basin inducing
subsidence and associated dry sinking air. As a result, no
significant precipitation is seen over the basin. ASCAT data
received this afternoon shows fresh to strong northeast to
east trade winds over the south-central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia. Elsewhere, the ASCAT data indicates moderate trade
winds are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as
in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle southeast winds are present over
the northwest section of the basin. Seas are in the range of 7-9
ft offshore Colombia per latest altimeter data pass from this
afternoon, while 3-5 ft seas are over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Lower seas, in the
range of 1-3 ft, are in the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean to near the coast of
Colombia will continue through and are expected again Tue night.
Thereafter, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will
prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf
of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front moves across
the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are
also expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
Republic Tue night through early Thu as high pressure builds over
the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 60W: As of 21Z, a cold front extends from east of Bermuda
near 32N63W southwestward to 27N70W and to the Straits of
Florida, where it begins to dissipate. GOES-16 imagery shows
large areas of rain, with embedded numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms, east of the front to a line from 32N57W to 27N62W
and to 25N66W. Fresh to north to northeast winds are behind the
front, north of 28N east of 79W, while fresh south to southwest
winds are east of the front north of 30N east to about 58W. Seas
are 5-7 ft north of 28N between 62W-78W. Mostly gentle wind
speeds are observed south of 24N and west of 70W. The front is
forecast to reach from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas tonight
while weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will
dominate the forecast waters through Fri. The next cold front is
forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Fri evening.

E of 60W: A weak cold front enters the discussion area near
32N34W and continues southwestward to near 27N41W, where it
begins to dissipate to near 27N45W. Possible isolated showers
are within south of the front between 39W-45W. The latest
synoptic analysis depicts the remainder of the subtropical
Atlantic under the influence of a surface high pressure ridge.
Gentle winds are present over the eastern and central Atlantic
generally from 20N to 30N. A tighter gradient farther south
between the high pressure ridge and the ITCZ is supporting mainly
fresh trade winds from 04N-18N between 35W-50W, and also well
northwest of the ITCZ over the waters from 13N to 18N between
56W-61W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 4-7 ft.
The northerly swell that had been occurring east of 30W is now
subsiding allowing for seas there to be in a subsiding trend.

$$
Aguirre
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