[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 04N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N18W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near
02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
seen from 03S-04N between 05W-12W, and from 03S-05N between
21W-37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-05N
between 37W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Keys west to 25N85W. A
stationary front continues west to 25N91W. No significant
precipitation is observed over the basin due to subsidence from
a mid-level ridge. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle E-SE winds
south of the front and east of 88W, with moderate E winds north
of the front. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail
across the basin, with some locally fresh speeds off the coast
of southern Texas. Seas are 3-5 ft over the west-central Gulf,
with 2-3 ft seas elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural and forest
fires over Mexico and Guatemala is spreading across portions of
the southwest Gulf, mainly south of 26N and west of 90W,
limiting visibility in some areas.

For the forecast, the cold front will move across the SE Gulf
early this afternoon while gradually weakening. Fresh to strong
SE winds are expected across the western Gulf Tue night through
Thu morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
Gulf waters late on Thu. Gale conditions are possible over the
SW Gulf behind the front on Fri. Currently, the forecast calls
for NW to N winds of 30 to 35 kt and seas in the 7 to 10 ft
range.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging continues to dominate the basin, producing
subsidence. As a result, there is no significant precipitation
seen over the Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass continues to show
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds are
noted in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as in the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle SE winds cover the NW part of the
basin. Seas of 5-8 ft are offshore Colombia, while 3-5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 1-3 ft cover the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in
the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia tonight
and again Tue night. Then, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast
in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
Republic Tue night through Thu night as high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 60W: A cold front extends from Bermuda to 28N71W to the
northern tip of Andros Island Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A
band of scattered moderate showers and tstorms is within 150 nm
southeast of the front, mainly north of 24N and east of 76W. A
recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N to NE winds behind the front,
north of 28N east of 79W. Fresh S to SW winds are noted ahead of
the front and N of 30N to about 58W. Seas are 5-7 ft north of
28N between 62W-78W. Mostly gentle wind speeds are observed
south of 24N and west of 70W. The front will reach from 31N60W
to the central Bahamas tonight while weakening. High pressure in
the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through
Fri. The next cold front will move off NE Florida by Fri evening.

E of 60W: A weak cold front enters the forecast waters near
32N36W and continues SW to near 27N43W, then continues as
stationary to 27N46W. Isolated showers are along and within 45
nm ahead of the cold front. The remainder of the subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a surface high pressure
ridge. Gentle winds are from 20N-30N over the eastern and
central Atlantic. Farther south, ASCAT shows fresh trades from
05N-18N between 35W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. The northerly
swell that had been occurring east of 30W is now subsiding, with
seas currently 6-8 ft over the far eastern Atlantic.

$$
Hagen
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