[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241025 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from
03N21W to 00N34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
the 02N-05N between 13W-34W, and from 00N-06N between 42W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent buoy and platform observations along with scatterometer
satellite data indicate fresh to strong SE winds in the central
and western Gulf of Mexico, between high pressure east of the
Carolinas and low pressure across Texas. Seas are 6 to 7 ft over
the central and western Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 4
ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico is noted on satellite imagery, causing
hazy sky conditions affecting much of the southwest and west-
central Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail
across the Gulf today, ahead of a cold front that will enter the
NW Gulf this evening. The front will move east of the basin Sun
night. Hazy sky conditions are likely to continue across most of
the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An anticyclonic ridge aloft across the northern Caribbean Sea is
maintaining fairly dry conditions across the basin. Fresh to
strong trade winds are active off Colombia, and scatterometer
data shows fresh to strong winds north of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are over the south-central and southeast
Caribbean, and moderate trade winds elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4
ft in the northern Caribbean and mostly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as high
pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh
to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1024 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and South
Carolina near 32N71W. A cold front reaches from near 32N53W to
26N65W. Isolated showers are noted within 90 nm east of the
front north of 28N. Moderate NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are
noted west of the front. Farther east, 1024 mb high pressure is
centered near 32N39W, with a dissipating cold front reaching
from Morocco through the Canary Islands to 23N21W. A surface
trough is analyzed from 23N21W to 20N33W to 27N48W. Moderate to
fresh NW winds along with 9 to 14 ft seas in NW swell are north
of 15N west of the front to 35W. Moderate to locally fresh
trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move east of
northern Florida on Sun, then weaken as it moves NE of the
Bahamas through Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop ahead of the front later today. Scattered showers and
strong thunderstorms are possible east of the front.

$$
Mundell
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net