[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W and continues SW to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W
to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. A large cluster of
moderate to strong convection is observed over Liberia and southern
Guinea producing frequent lightnings and strong gusty winds. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-06N between
12W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 26N90W
and to southern Texas. Some multilayered clouds are noted near
the frontal boundary while the NE Gulf is cloud free. This front
will begin to lift back north as a warm front late tonight
through Saturday. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds across most of the basin north of
23N, with light to gentle winds in the SW Gulf. Seas are
generally in the 3 to 5 ft range across the Gulf waters. Patchy
areas of smoke and haze are possible in the Bay of Campeche due
to agricultural fires in Mexico. A swirl of mainly low clouds is
moving northward along the coast of Mexico and is reaching the
Tampico area.

A new cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sat afternoon, and move
across the rest of the Gulf through Sun evening. High pressure in
the wake of the front will slide eastward through Tue night allowing
for fresh to strong southerly flow to set up over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak frontal boundary has reached western Cuba during the
afternoon hours. The city of Havana and Varadero reported N of
winds of 14-15 kt indicating the passage of the front. In
addition, satellite imagery shows a narrow band of low level
clouds over western Cuba associated with the front.

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere E of 80W and
over the the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds are observed
in the lee of western Cuba. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over
the south-central Caribbean, 4-6 ft elsewhere over the eastern
and central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the NW part of the basin.
Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow
will continue to move across the region producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will
diminish slightly into the weekend as high pressure over the
central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of
Colombia where these winds will persist into early next week,
but within a rather small area.

Looking ahead, the current dry pattern over northern Colombia and
western Venezuela is forecast to change into a wet one next week
as atmospheric conditions become more favorable for the potential
of heavy rain.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 65W: A weakening cold front extends from just east of Bermuda
to 27N73W, where it becomes a weakening stationary front to western
Cuba. Some shower activity is associated with the frontal boundary
E of the Bahamas. A second cold front extends from near 31N70W
to South Florida. A narrow line of clouds defines the front. The
second front will merge with the remnants of the first front early
on Fri, and extend from near 31N67W to the central Bahamas and
to the Straits of Florida. The merging front will weaken as it
moves across the waters NE of the Bahamas through late Fri. High
pressure will follow the front and will dominate the waters W of
65W through Sat.

On Sat night, a stronger cold front is expected to approach the
southeastern U.S. coast and move across the waters NE of the
Bahamas through Mon night while weakening. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop over the waters N of 27N and W of
70W Sat and Sat night. The forecast currently calls for southerly
winds of 20-30 kt, and building seas in the 8-9 ft range. These
marine conditions will shift eastward, covering mainly the area
N of 27N between 65W and 75W through Sun night. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are possible ahead of
this front.

E of 65W: A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N21W and
continues SW along 27N30W to 27N44W, then extends as a stationary
front to to 30N50W. Fresh NW winds are north of the front east
of 34W, where seas are 9-13 ft. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered
near 31N44W. Moderate to fresh trades cover the tropical Atlantic
from 05N-21N between the west coast of Africa to the Lesser
Antilles, where seas are 6-8 ft.

$$
GR
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