[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W and continues SW to 05N20W to 03N23W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N23W to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near
01S48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
located from 00N-06N between 05W-21W, from 03S-04N between
25W-32W, and from 03S-04N between 45W-51W. Isolated moderate
showers are elsewhere from 03S-06N between 05W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is over the Florida Straits from 24N80W to
23N87W, dissipating to 23N90W. A second stationary front is
located from near Ft. Myers Florida to 26N90W, with a
dissipating warm front analyzed from 26N90W to the coast of
Texas near 27N97.5W. Clouds are near the frontal boundaries but
no significant precipitation is noted. A recent ASCAT pass shows
moderate to locally fresh east winds across most of the basin
north of 23N, with gentle winds in the SW Gulf. Seas range from
3 to 5 ft, highest in the west-central Gulf. Patchy areas of
smoke and haze are possible in the Bay of Campeche due to
agricultural fires in Mexico.

The stationary front that extends from Fort Myers Florida to
26N90W will lift north as a warm front Friday through Saturday.
A new cold front will then enter the NW Gulf Sat afternoon and
move across the rest of the Gulf through Sun evening. High
pressure in the wake of the front will slide
eastward through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper level ridging covers most of the Caribbean with
subsidence and relatively dry air. A recent ASCAT pass shows
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere east of 80W. Moderate winds are seen in
the SW Caribbean, and gentle winds are over the NW basin. Seas
are in the 6-9 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, 4-6 ft
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
over the NW part of the basin.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will
diminish slightly into the weekend as high pressure over the
central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of
Colombia where these winds will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Bermuda to 27N73W, where it
transitions to a stationary front that continues to Andros
Island Bahamas through the Florida Straits to 23.5N83W.
Scattered moderate tstorms are along and within 60 nm east of
the entire front to the northeast of Andros Island. A second
cold front extends from 32N71W to Lake Okeechobee Florida.
Isolated showers are SE of this front. Fresh N to NE winds are
seen on a recent ASCAT pass to the north and west of the second
front, extending to the coast of northern and central Florida.
Elsewhere over the western Atlantic to the south of the second
front, wind speeds are mostly moderate, except gentle near a
surface ridge axis that lies from the central Bahamas to 26N65W
to 29N53W. Seas are 5-7 ft in the fresh wind area east of
northern Florida, and 3-6 ft over the rest of the western
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 65W, the second front will merge with
the first front by this evening, and the combined cold front
will stretch from 31N64W through the NW Bahamas to the Florida
Straits tonight. Winds behind the second front will diminish to
moderate to fresh this afternoon. Sun morning, a stronger cold
front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast and
move across the waters NE of the Bahamas through Mon night while
weakening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede this
front east of northern Florida Sat and Sat night, and shift
eastward through Sun night. Scattered showers and tstorms are
possible ahead of this front.

E of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N24W to 28N34W to
27.5N44W, then continues as a stationary front to 29N50W to
32N52W. Scattered moderate showers are near the front east of
34W. Fresh NW winds are north of the front east of 34W, where
seas are 9-13 ft. Gentle winds are south of the front and north
of 23N, due to surface ridging, where seas are 4-7 ft. A 1027 mb
high pressure is centered near 32N45W. Fresh trades cover the
tropical Atlantic from 05N-21N between 35W-61W, where seas are
6-8 ft.

$$
Hagen
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