[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 05S northward to 180 nm north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, between the coast of Africa and 36W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 01S-08N between 42W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends over the southern Gulf of Mexico from
Lake Okeechobee Florida to 21N94W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the stationary
front, north of 23N and east of 88W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are over the southern half of the Florida
Peninsula. The stationary front will move SE as a cold front
this afternoon, exiting the Gulf this evening. Expect for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over the
southeast Gulf waters near the front through this afternoon.
Seas will be in the 3-5 ft range over most of the basin this
afternoon.

Farther north, a cold front extends from Destin Florida to
28N89W to 27N94W to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. High
pressure of 1027 mb centered over north Texas is ushering in
cooler air behind the cold front, with latest surface
observations showing fresh N-NE winds north of the cold front. A
recent ASCAT pass also shows a large area of fresh N winds over
the central Gulf, in between the two fronts. The cold front will
reach from west-central Florida to the central Gulf by late
tonight, then weaken early Thu as it reaches from southwest
Florida to near 23N90W. On Fri, fresh to strong southerly return
flow will develop over the western Gulf, shift to the central
Gulf early Sat and diminish late Sat as another cold front
enters the far NW Gulf. This cold front will move across the
rest of the Gulf through Sun night as it weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent ASCAT pass on Wednesday morning shows strong trades
over the south-central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds prevail
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean. The ASCAT pass
shows gentle wind speeds over the Windward Passage, north of
Jamaica and south of Cuba. Seas are likely 7-10 ft in the
south-central Caribbean, 5-7 ft elsewhere over the eastern and
central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the NW basin. Overall, dry
conditions prevail, except for a few showers east of the Yucatan
Peninsula and northern Belize as well as over central Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean will diminish slightly late in the week as high
pressure over the central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near
the coast of Colombia where these winds will persist through the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low near 33N69W to
Lake Okeechobee Florida. A warm front extends SE from the low to
30N61W, where it transitions to a cold front that extends E to
29N55W to 32N45W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are seen
along and within 90 nm SE of the stationary front over the
western Atlantic. Farther east, scattered showers are seen along
the warm front and cold front. A surface ridge axis extends
across the subtropical Atlantic from 30N25W to a 1025 mb high
pressure near 27N36W to a 1024 mb high pressure near 28N56W to
the central Bahamas. Mainly moderate wind speeds of 10-15 kt
prevail across the western Atlantic, except for fresh closer to
the 1014 mb low and in the convection along the stationary
front. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere near the ridge
axis over the central and eastern Atlantic, generally from
23N-30N, except near the coast of Africa, where fresh NE winds
are observed. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the
tropical Atlantic, from 06N-21N between 35W-65W. Seas are 4-5 ft
over the W Atlantic and across the subtropical Atlantic near the
ridge axis. Higher seas of 6-8 ft are located north of 30N east
of 75W, and also in the tropical Atlantic, where the fresh
trades are observed.

For the forecast west of 65W, the west Atlantic stationary front
will transition back to a cold front today, and merge with a
secondary front emerging off the SE U.S. coast tonight. N of
28N, fresh to strong SW winds are possible ahead of the first
front, with strong NW winds possible behind the second front.
High pressure will shift eastward through Sat night as a
stronger cold front approaches the SE U.S. coast. This front is
expected to move across the western Atlantic Sun and Sun night,
preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds and possible
thunderstorms.

Currently, a storm force 998 mb low pressure north of the area
near 38N42W extends a cold front SW to beyond 32N45W. The gales
associated with this storm will remain north of 32N as it moves
ENE over the north Atlantic. However, swell from this storm will
produce seas of 11-14 ft, generally north of 28N and east of 40W
tonight through Fri.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net